West Texas Rangelands would like to extend our gratitude to Mr. Luke Drosche for collaborating with us and providing this weather update for our readers. We thank him for sharing his time, talents, and knowledge with us as a guest contributor. Luke serves with Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service as a Disaster Assessment and Recovery Specialist.
3-Month Precipitation Outlook
The end of April has brought heavy rainfall to a good 70% of the State. Springtime months are typically beneficial for Texas, bringing in showers that, unfortunately, pack a punch with severe weather attached. Large Hail, Damaging Winds, Flash Flooding, and even Tornados are more common in March, April, and May, and will continue while our summertime heat and Hurricane season kick off. More of this can be expected through May and stretching into the Mid-Summer months, according to NOAA’s 3-month outlook. This forecast keeps Texas in an Equal Chances Category through the early summer for marking near average on our rain gauges. The forecast specifically mentions areas that have received rainfall in April, having better chances of finding more rain through early June due to the moistened topsoil.
Areas in far West Texas and far west of the Panhandle are in a slightly above-average chances category. These equal and above probabilities are following our large-scale weather pattern, working to make a major shift. Currently, we are in an ENSO Neutral period, meaning we are not in either La Niña or El Niño. But as we move through May and June, we are expecting to move into the El Niño phase. This will prompt better rain chances for all of the State, and typically reduces our likelihood of seeing hurricane impacts, although hurricanes in the Gulf and hitting Texas are still possible.
3-Month Temperature Outlook
Summertime is here early. All of Texas has a “Leaning Above” designation for hitting warmer-than-average temperatures through July. Parts of Texas have already seen these warm summer temperatures and even heat advisories/warnings. With our increased moisture over the State, these warmer temperatures will feel more stifling. It is important to remember to stay hydrated, take breaks in the shade, and make sure our livestock and pets have access to drinking water. Practice summer weather-resistant strategies now; these warm temperatures are not going anywhere anytime soon.
Drought Update
There is a tale of two stories this month since I last discussed drought with you all. The Panhandle and Eastern parts of Texas have found drying, worsening conditions, and are currently under Severe and Extreme Drought. In the Northern Hill County, up through the DFW Metroplex, we have seen massive steps in a positive direction, as these areas are in no drought designation. This area is roughly 25% of the State of Texas and had been in the Dry to Severe Categories prior to this update. As of April 21st, around 60% of the State is in worse, Severe to Exceptional Drought categories. Due to heavy rain since this map’s last update, 2-4 inches in the last 2 weeks, I expect to see areas around San Antonio and East along I-10 to North Houston get bumped down a drought category, and the total Severe to Exceptional percentage to go down. Far South Texas into the Valley should also see some lessening of the current extreme conditions they are in from rainfall in the last two weeks, 0.5-3 inches.
Recent forecasts and news calling for the early transition into a strong El Niño Pattern makes me believe that we will find some drought relief across much of the State over the next few months. Strong El Niño patterns have previously provided heavy rainfall events that have helped to boost our water storage and ease drought conditions overall, but not totally erase them. Along with higher chances of rain, stronger chances of severe weather and flash flooding will persist. Now is the time to make sure you and your operation are ready for adverse conditions. Always have a way to receive weather warnings, have a plan, and practice that plan. Let’s hope for beneficial rain without any of its rude partners, stay safe my friends.
References:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
https://www.drought.gov/states/texas
