The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its winter outlook. For Texas, we are looking at near-normal temperatures and wetter-than-normal conditions. While there are some potential drought improvements, it is expected to hang around. Figure 1b below gives us a three-month precipitation outlook.
Monthly Drought Update and El Niño Possibility!
The last three years have been years of La Niñas, while there is some chatter of a super El Niño coming, right now there is a 71 % chance of a strong El Niño developing (defined as a sea-surface temperature greater than or equal to 1.5 degrees Celsius). Figure 6a illustrates El Niño conditions exceeding 95% chance of extending through the winter, with growing chances of more neutral conditions in early Spring 2024.
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Weak El Niño Now, But Likely to Grow Through Winter
Despite being weak, El Niño conditions continue to be in place, after the event was deemed officially underway a month ago. This is the first El Niño in four years and there is a 90% chance that these conditions will remain throughout winter.
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NIFA Invests $9 million in Extension, Education and USDA Climate Hubs Partnership
We are excited to announce that Drs. Morgan Treadwell, Melissa Shehane, and Ben Wu will be continuing education and extension Prairie Project efforts after receiving a $1.5 million grant from the USDA-NIFA Extension, Education and USDA Climate Hubs Partnership program area priority within AFRI’s Foundational and Applied Science Program to support a project titled, “Promoting Climate-Smart Agricultural Practice to Reduce Risk and Impacts of Drought, Wildfire and Woody Encroachment on Livestock Production.”
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Intense and Lengthened Fire Weather Conditions – Becoming More Common
As the peak of summer approaches, drought conditions become alarmingly extended, and extended triple digit heat cripples and crunches native grasses, and convective storms rage dry lightning, it’s crucial that ranchers equip themselves with the knowledge and tools to combat any extreme conditions, namely summer wildfire season. Fire weather days are a mix of low humidity, strong winds and high temperatures. The number of these days has increased in the lower 48 states in the past 50 years alone.
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A Drought, El Niño, and Forage Update
Drought Proofing The Ranch Online Course
While the majority of Texas is being impacted by Drought, this Drought Proofing the Ranch course will offer timely advice and guidance. Not currently affected by the drought? It is never too early to start preparing your ranch!