El Niño Archives - West Texas Rangelands

Early Fall Outlook Points to Heat, Fire Risk, and Continued Drought Concerns

July 30, 2026 by kara.matheney

West Texas Rangelands would like to extend our gratitude to Mr. Luke Drosche for collaborating with us and providing this weather update for our readers. We thank him for sharing his time, talents, and knowledge with us as a guest contributor. Luke serves with Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service as a Disaster Assessment and Recovery Specialist.

3-Month Precipitation Outlook
Heavy Rainfall is always two-sided. This month we have seen extremely high rainfall totals across the Hill Country. All of that rain flows into the Highland Lakes, Choke Canyon, Lake Corpus Christi, and Canyon Lake. These lakes needed a boost, especially those down in South Texas near Corpus Christi. While providing necessary drinking water, unfortunately, this extreme event took multiple lives and has cost Texas millions of dollars. To those who are tired of the rain, the next 3 months are expected to be slightly drier than what we have recently experienced. Most of the state is in a “Leaning Below” category while El Paso sits in a rare “Leaning Above” category. They are more likely to see some rain. Both categories are in slight chances, meaning there is less likelihood of deviation from the typical early fall precipitation.

3-Month Temperature Outlook
While rainfall chances sit in the middle, our temperature predictions are confident. That’s right, hot. It is near August in Texas, and here we are seeing extreme heat across our state. Nothing new for the majority of us, who have understood what the late dog days of summer typically bring. NOAA also understands this, as all of the state is in a Higher-than-Average category for summertime temperatures. We will need to watch areas that have high fuel loads from previous rains and remaining grasses, as the expedited drying will create dangerous fire weather conditions across the State.

Drought Update
We have seen continued improvements in the Hill Country, Northeast, and in West Texas with recent rainfall. Some light improvements have also found the panhandle with areas of extreme drought shrinking down to 1% rather than 4% from last update. The Panhandle still needs more rainfall to find further relief before stifling summer temperatures bake the moisture from the ground. It is also important to note increasing areas of Abnormally Dry Conditions down in Deep South Texas. We hope to see moderate rainfall amounts for those of us still in drought, especially in the Panhandle and along/East of I-35, and a break from rain for those in the Hill Country areas.

Hurricane Season
Last week we got our first true taste of the Tropical Weather Season. Tropical Storm Bertha gave some Texans a scare when its track took a southward shift and hung out over warm Gulf Waters. Luckily, it did not carry any major impacts to Texas, but it served as a wake-up call for all of us that we are still in Hurricane Season and to check our Hurricane Preparedness Plan. Hurricane Season in Texas is officially June 1^st through November 30^th. The US has seen hurricanes on either side of those dates. For us, our hurricanes come from the Atlantic Basin. Hurricanes in the Gulf are also categorized under the Atlantic Basin Title. This area sees hurricanes throughout the entirety of hurricane season, but we are more likely to experience these between August 1st and November 15^th. Our waters warm all through the summer and become energy powerhouses for anything that forms in the early fall. Texas has seen some of its worst storms in the early fall, such as Hurricane Harvey in 2017. Make a plan, stay informed, and stay prepared for Hurricanes and any disaster.

Resources and References
*https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
*https://www.drought.gov/states/texas

Summer Weather Outlook

June 25, 2026 by kara.matheney

3-Month Precipitation Outlook
The last few months have proven soggy for much of the State with the exception of our friends in the panhandle and in the Northeast. Multiple weather systems have impacted central and south Texas helping the drought situation. Some of this looks to continue heading into the dog days of summer as a majority of the state is expected to mark near normal for monthly rainfall over the course of the next 3 months. The exception to this is the immediate coastlines and some of the coastal prairies where there is a lesser chance of receiving normal rainfall. It is important to note that we will certainly see dry, hot spells this summer that can create dry conditions and, in some areas, worsen droughts.

A Tale of Two Texas Landscapes: Drought Conditions and the Road Ahead

April 29, 2026 by kara.matheney

3-Month Precipitation Outlook
The end of April has brought heavy rainfall to a good 70% of the State. Springtime months are typically beneficial for Texas, bringing in showers that, unfortunately, pack a punch with severe weather attached. Large Hail, Damaging Winds, Flash Flooding, and even Tornados are more common in March, April, and May, and will continue while our summertime heat and Hurricane season kick off. More of this can be expected through May and stretching into the Mid-Summer months, according to NOAA’s 3-month outlook. This forecast keeps Texas in an Equal Chances Category through the early summer for marking near average on our rain gauges. The forecast specifically mentions areas that have received rainfall in April, having better chances of finding more rain through early June due to the moistened topsoil.
Areas in far West Texas and far west of the Panhandle are in a slightly above-average chances category. These equal and above probabilities are following our large-scale weather pattern, working to make a major shift. Currently, we are in an ENSO Neutral period, meaning we are not in either La Niña or El Niño. But as we move through May and June, we are expecting to move into the El Niño phase. This will prompt better rain chances for all of the State, and typically reduces our likelihood of seeing hurricane impacts, although hurricanes in the Gulf and hitting Texas are still possible.

3-Month Temperature Outlook
Summertime is here early. All of Texas has a “Leaning Above” designation for hitting warmer-than-average temperatures through July. Parts of Texas have already seen these warm summer temperatures and even heat advisories/warnings. With our increased moisture over the State, these warmer temperatures will feel more stifling. It is important to remember to stay hydrated, take breaks in the shade, and make sure our livestock and pets have access to drinking water. Practice summer weather-resistant strategies now; these warm temperatures are not going anywhere anytime soon.

Drought Update
There is a tale of two stories this month since I last discussed drought with you all. The Panhandle and Eastern parts of Texas have found drying, worsening conditions, and are currently under Severe and Extreme Drought. In the Northern Hill County, up through the DFW Metroplex, we have seen massive steps in a positive direction, as these areas are in no drought designation. This area is roughly 25% of the State of Texas and had been in the Dry to Severe Categories prior to this update. As of April 21^st, around 60% of the State is in worse, Severe to Exceptional Drought categories. Due to heavy rain since this map’s last update, 2-4 inches in the last 2 weeks, I expect to see areas around San Antonio and East along I-10 to North Houston get bumped down a drought category, and the total Severe to Exceptional percentage to go down. Far South Texas into the Valley should also see some lessening of the current extreme conditions they are in from rainfall in the last two weeks, 0.5-3 inches.

Recent forecasts and news calling for the early transition into a strong El Niño Pattern makes me believe that we will find some drought relief across much of the State over the next few months. Strong El Niño patterns have previously provided heavy rainfall events that have helped to boost our water storage and ease drought conditions overall, but not totally erase them. Along with higher chances of rain, stronger chances of severe weather and flash flooding will persist. Now is the time to make sure you and your operation are ready for adverse conditions. Always have a way to receive weather warnings, have a plan, and practice that plan. Let’s hope for beneficial rain without any of its rude partners, stay safe my friends.

References:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
https://www.drought.gov/states/texas

Spring Weather Outlook By Luke Drosche – Texas A&M AgriLife Extension DAR Specialist

March 18, 2026 by kara.matheney

3-Month Precipitation Outlook:
The first few days of March have brought areas of rain and severe storms to a large portion of the State. Those across the Coastal Plains have enjoyed some much-needed precipitation, while our areas in the Panhandle and out west have continue to be mostly dry with the exception of a few supercell thunderstorms. The month of March should continue to bolster higher rain chances before tapering back off closer to May. The 3-month outlook has shown that a majority of the state is in an “Equal Chances” Category for rain. Meaning that we are most likely to mark near normal on our rain gauges. NOAA has predicated the month of March to be potentially wetter than average for the Northeastern part of the State before marking close to normal through April and May. While the far western and Northwestern areas are forecasted to be drier. This is the time of year we need to make sure we always have a way to receive weather warnings. Severe Weather in Texas is year-round but increases dramatically in the springtime. For anywhere you are in the State of Texas, all modes of Severe weather are possible. It is important to have a plan for you, your family, and your property should severe weather impact you. Know how to communicate, plan to live a few days without power or water, and who to contact if you are affected by severe weather. Keep an eye to the sky.

3-Month Temperature Outlook:
Rinse and Repeat from our winter months is predicted as we remain warmer than average. March has a high likelihood of marking above normal temperature with higher-than-normal temperatures likely through at least May, areas out west have higher potential to be warmer than average. The entire state is under this prediction due to our current La Nina Conditions. These bring warmer temperatures to our area. However, we are seeing a transition out of La Nina into ENSO Neutral Conditions. This transition will happen over the next few months. Later in the year we look to potentially move into an El Nino weather pattern closer to next Fall. We will take this as a hope for more beneficial rain as 19.2 million of us in the State of Texas are in a Drought Designation.

Drought Update:
Extreme Drought Conditions persist in Central and South Texas with nearly the entire state in some dryness/drought category. Panhandle regions remain in Moderate Drought and areas slightly south of there creep into the Severe Drought Designation. Early March’s rain will provide some relief to the Coastal Plains and parts of Central Texas when the next Drought updates come in roughly a month from now. More rainy days are predicted through March and will hopefully continue to improve conditions. The next few months, March, April, and May typically bring weather systems across much of the state. These systems pack a punch with severe storms and high rainfall rates. We always prefer longer, drawn out rainfall events that allow the rainfall to soak into the soil, rather than run off the dry, packed ground. However, once the soil is primed with some moisture from whatever form of rain we get, we benefit more. With the transition predicted us of La Nina and into ENSO Neutral conditions, we are hopeful for some improvement in overall drought conditions across the State. Over many months in recent history, we have been in a La Nina designation, which is what has continued to push our drought conditions. As we transition into Neutral Conditions in the short term, we will see more weather patterns indicative of repeated rainfall come into play. No doubt we will still see long periods of dry weather, but let’s keep a hopeful eye on next fall as we should move into El Nino Conditions.

References and Resources: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/, https://www.drought.gov/states/texas

A Flood of Change: What July’s Historic Rains Mean for Texas’ Drought Outlook

August 27, 2025 by jaime.sanford

Texas endured a dramatic climatic shift in July—one that’s already rewriting the story of our drought and breaking 131 year records. But even as optimism swells, persistent vulnerabilities remind us the path to recovery is far from over.

81% La Niña Conditions

October 16, 2024 by jaime.sanford

Pockets of drought relief exist, but not much. In fact, 74% of the state is abnormally dry or worse, up 4% from last month. Underlying dryness and dry, drought cured grasses will support low to moderate potential for wildfires with steady 10-15 mph winds as frontal activity increases. As forage transitions to fuel, rangeland managers are monitoring perennial grass response throughout the Concho Valley as some counties received over 12” of rainfall in September alone.

As we move from a summer to fall-like pattern this week, the Outlook +Water Report from October 5th keenly acknowledges sea-surface temperatures in the Central Pacific (defining the status of the weather phenomenon known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation) are under neutral conditions, but sea-surface temps continue to drop suggesting a transition to La Niña conditions in September-November (81% chance). However, current dynamical and statistical models show the La Niña period promises to be weak and short.

Source

The current U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook shows drought development over the eastern third of Texas and in the Panhandle. With the increased drought designation, temperatures over the next 3 months are expected to be above-average with rainfall deficits for Far West, Panhandle, and Eastern Texas.

Source

As with any drought monitoring or transitions into La Niña this fall and winter, West Texas Rangeland managers know to prioritize keeping the ground covered, maintaining residual forage, rotating livestock, and plan, plan, plan.

For more information, be sure to check out the full article from Outlook + Water here!

Mace, R. (2024, October 8). outlook+water: Drought declines, La Niña delayed again, more drought expected. texaspluswater.wp.txstate.edu. October 14, 2024, https://texaspluswater.wp.txstate.edu/2024/10/08/outlookwater-drought-declines-la-nina-delayed-again-more-drought-expected/?utm_source=Texas%2BWater+Newsletter&utm_campaign=c569d9ca52-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2023_03_22_08_02_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_-86323a7a46-%5BLIST_EMAIL_ID%5D&mc_cid=c569d9ca52&mc_eid=23994de06b

Drought Update!

August 21, 2024 by jaime.sanford

Did you know that East and Northeast Texas received two to four times the normal amount of rainfall in July? Unfortunately, the other half of the State did not do as well, as some places in West Texas only received a half an inch of rain. With the increase in rains in Eastern areas of the State, Lake Travis saw 78,000 acre-feet of runoff pour into the basin! Even with that amount of runoff, Lake Travis still remains at less than 50% full. The figure below shows the reservoir storage for Lake Travis. In looking at the figure, our numbers are above where we were for 2023 and a little bit more than where we were in 2011.

La Niña has been the dominant subject of the summer. According to this month’s update, projections are suggesting a shift to La Nina in mid-to-late summer. Looking at the figure below, there is a 45% chance that La Nina occurs during the July-August-September months. Moving ahead on the figure, we can see that shifting one month over, there is a 70% chance of those La Niña conditions occurring in August-September-October months.

Looking ahead at the three month drought outlook, you can see in the figure below, that West Texas will remain in drought conditions. There is also the possibility for drought conditions to develop in the Northern Panhandle.

In looking at the 3-month precipitation forecast, Texas does not look to be receiving a greater chance of rain. As you can see, the East Coast is set to have above normal chances of rain, with East Texas catching a tail end of that wave. On the other side of that, the Northern Panhandle is forecasted to receive less than normal rainfall. The figure below explains more of the 3-month forecast.

For more information, be sure to check out the full article here from Texas+Water.

Texas + Water – June Update

June 26, 2024 by jaime.sanford

Hurricane season is coming fast and furious! NOAA is predicting an above-normal hurricane season, forecasting 17 – 25 named storms (winds higher than 39 mph), 8-13 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher) and 4-7 major hurricanes (Cats 3, 4, or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher). The sea-surface temperatures are already exceeding last year’s temperatures. The figure above shows the differences in temperatures from this year and previous years. With all this in mind, NOAA is predicting an 85% above-normal season. The season stretches from June 1st – November 30th.

Monthly Weather Update!

April 17, 2024 by jaime.sanford

The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook was recently released for the next three months. According to the update released on March 31st, drought will persist in West Texas and with some improvements in the Hill Country area. The precipitation forecast will not help as the next three months is forecasted to be lower than normal rain chances while the very East side of the State will receive higher than normal rain chances. In Texas, 45% of the State is abnormally dry or worse, this has increased 2% from last month.

Drought Conditions Persist and a Weather Update!

March 13, 2024 by jaime.sanford

Over the last month the Eastern part of the State has received significant amounts of rainfall, while the Western part of the State is below average. Over the next three months, see figure adjacent, it is predicted that the Western part of the State, which is already dry, will be experiencing even drier than average conditions.