During this Winter season, parts of Texas have experienced a strong El Niño presence. However, El Niño has begun to weaken and is expected to do so over the next few months. El Niño’s counterpart, La Niña, is likely to take over as early as this summer. According to the Climate Prediction Center, there is a 55% chance of La Niña conditions by June 1st.
[Read more…] about What does a strong La Niña this summer mean for Texas weather?
In the past two months, East Texas and the Coast have seen more than two inches of rain. However, the Southern Coastal area and the Northeastern area of Texas have received more than four inches of rain. Far West Texas and the Panhandle have received less than .5 of an inch of rain, coinciding with most of the rest of the state that have received less than normal rainfall over the past thirty days.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its winter outlook. For Texas, we are looking at near-normal temperatures and wetter-than-normal conditions. While there are some potential drought improvements, it is expected to hang around. Figure 1b below gives us a three-month precipitation outlook.
The last three years have been years of La Niñas, while there is some chatter of a super El Niño coming, right now there is a 71 % chance of a strong El Niño developing (defined as a sea-surface temperature greater than or equal to 1.5 degrees Celsius). Figure 6a illustrates El Niño conditions exceeding 95% chance of extending through the winter, with growing chances of more neutral conditions in early Spring 2024.
[Read more…] about Monthly Drought Update and El Niño Possibility!
Despite being weak, El Niño conditions continue to be in place, after the event was deemed officially underway a month ago. This is the first El Niño in four years and there is a 90% chance that these conditions will remain throughout winter.
[Read more…] about Weak El Niño Now, But Likely to Grow Through Winter