West Texas Rangelands would like to extend our gratitude to Mr. Luke Drosche for collaborating with us and providing this weather update for our readers. We thank him for sharing his time, talents, and knowledge with us as a guest contributor. Luke serves with Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service as a Disaster Assessment and Recovery Specialist.
3-Month Precipitation Outlook
The last few months have proven soggy for much of the State with the exception of our friends in the panhandle and in the Northeast. Multiple weather systems have impacted central and south Texas helping the drought situation. Some of this looks to continue heading into the dog days of summer as a majority of the state is expected to mark near normal for monthly rainfall over the course of the next 3 months. The exception to this is the immediate coastlines and some of the coastal prairies where there is a lesser chance of receiving normal rainfall. It is important to note that we will certainly see dry, hot spells this summer that can create dry conditions and, in some areas, worsen droughts.
3-Month Temperature Outlook
With these Dry Spells we will see warmer temperatures for the season, as is typical for our great state. All of Texas is in a “Leaning Above” category for marking above average on our thermometers through August. Higher heat can cause quicker drying of vegetation and can increase weather related injuries, so make sure to prepare accordingly, stay hydrated, and take care of our animals.
Drought Update
Since the last time I have written about our State’s Drought, we have seen much needed relief across a majority of our Central, Eastern, Western, and Southern Areas. Unfortunately, a serious drought remains in the Panhandle. This area specifically has missed out on multiple weather, “Drought Busting”, events that the rest of the state has received. All of the Texas Panhandle is in a Severe Drought designation with the Central and Northeastern areas in Extreme to Exceptional Drought. This is the only part of Texas currently in an Exceptional Drought (The most severe Drought category.) Comparatively to the last update when South and West Texas both had this level of severity. Areas East of Dallas have also missed out on the rain and find themselves in a Severe to Extreme drought designation. A silver lining to all of this is that in April, 76% of the state was in a drought and now a mere 41% remains, although the effects of this on ranchers continue to be brutal. When the next drought update comes through later this month I expect to see lessening of overall state drought coverage due to the very recent rainfall across south/central Texas.
El Nino
Our once forecasted “El Nino” is now here and will stay for a while. NOAA has issued their official probabilities for El Nino and it is 98-100% through March of 2027.
Another interesting part of this El Nino is the predicted strength. News outlets have begun calling this a “Super El Nino”. This is certainly a great title to get viewers interested, and there could be some truth to a strong El Nino event in comparison to those in recent years. As we move into the early Fall months, we have higher and higher chances of this becoming a very strong El Nino. What is important to remember here is that a stronger, or “Super”, El Nino does not strictly mean stronger weather systems. A strong El Nino is in relation to the possibility of a higher frequency of weather events. Meaning that we have more chances to see more wet weather across the State of Texas.
Hurricane Season is also upon us now through November 30th. This year we will most likely see a lower-than-average season with 8-14 named storms. To be a named storm, a system must have sustained winds of 39mph. To become a Hurricane the winds, need to be at least 74mph. Of the 8-14 named storms, 3-6 are predicted to become hurricanes, and 1-3 are set to be Major Hurricanes with winds of 111mph or more. El Nino is believed to dampen hurricane activity in the gulf; however, damaging hurricanes can still impact our coastlines. The best time to make a plan and prepare is now!
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
https://www.drought.gov/states/texas