What is Risk? Risk is the probability and consequences of uncertain future events. It is the framework for understanding the implications of decisions because the decisions we make all come with a tradeoff. Wildfire Risk is the likelihood of a wildfire occurring and the potential effects it would have on things we care about. Being able to estimate the likelihood and consequences of wildfires, we are better able to consider and plan for possible outcomes.
Future Wildfire Seasons: Hotter, Dryer, and Longer
A Fire danger index (FDI) is a measure that is used to assess the risk and severity of a fire. It relies on the combination of weather and fuel conditions. These FDI’s have been used to help predict and manage the risk of wildfires. Even with these tools, there is still uncertainty in predicting the likelihood of fire ignition or the potential size the fire can get.
In the study below, four of the FDI’s were analyzed and had a sensitivity analysis performed on them to determine the most important drivers. The sensitivity analysis determined that daily minimum relative humidity, precipitation, and wind speed were the most important driving factors in future wildfire dangers, including length of a wildfire season.
The study also included a regional climate model simulation to derive FDI’s for current and future climate conditions. The results from this simulation suggested that an overall increase in fire potential and a prolonged wildfire season is expected in our future Texas climate. Enhanced fire frequency and fire season length is expected to occur in Spring and Summer throughout the Southern Great Plains.
By 2050, the number of days with wildfire danger in Texas could increase by as many as 40 days per year with high heat and dry periods significantly lengthening the wildfire season.
For more information and to read the study below, click here – Earth s Future – 2023 – Yu – Performance of Fire Danger Indices and Their Utility in Predicting Future Wildfire Danger Over!
Yu, G., Feng, Y., Wang, J., & Wright, D. B. (2023). Performance of fire danger indices and their utility in predicting future wildfire danger over the conterminous United States. Earth’s Future, 11(11). https://doi.org/10.1029/2023ef003823
The Wildfire Impacts of the 2017-2018 Precipitation Whiplash Event across the Southern Great Plains
Above average precipitation during the growing season, spurring on massive amounts of grass growth, followed by significant drought, resulting in an intense wildfire season. All within a single year. It’s absolute whiplash! Sound familiar? Researchers recently examined the role of whiplash events where preceding precipitation produce massive fuel for wildfires in a short period of time using 2017-2018 in Texas and Oklahoma as a case study. While studies like these have been done in California, there have been limited studies like this across the Southern Great Plains. This study was the first time that the relationship among precipitation, vegetation, and wildfires have been looked at collectively across the Southern Great Plains!
Prescribed Fire Lessons
The Nebraska Prescribed Fire Council has published its second issue of Prescribed Fire Lessons Learned! The Nebraska Prescribed Fire Council takes submissions from practitioners on lessons learned from prescribed fires to assist producers, landowners, PBAs, and other prescribed fire professionals to keep improving season after season. This forum has been invaluable in learning from one another in hopes that mistakes or judgment calls turn into valuable lessons for all of us building and contributing to prescribed fire culture. Below are some highlights from this issue.
Prescribed Fire as a Tool for Controlling Tick Populations in the Southeastern United States
Did you know that tick geographic ranges are expanding past their historical boundaries due to environmental changes? The Gulf Coast tick is found in the southeastern and southern midwestern United States and its range is expanding.
Snow Hill Fire Lessons Learned
On August 2, 2023, the San Jacinto County Sheriff’s Office requested assistance from the Texas A&M Forest Service on a grass fire at FM 946 South and Harrell Road. A dominant upper-level ridge of high pressure resided over Texas from the middle of June through early August. These conditions resulted in flash drought conditions, which was only intensified by the well below normal rainfall.
National Prescribed Fire Resource Mobilization Strategy
This summer the National Prescribed Fire Resource Mobilization Strategy was released. The plan calls for six prescribed fire implementation teams to be created that will incorporate prescribed fire practitioners and expertise into a management structure. This concept would support the implementation of prescribed fire at multiple organizational and complex levels. These teams would be tailored to meet specific needs and facilitate multiple projects simultaneously. Each function that supports the implementation of prescribed burning can be scaled up or down at any level, to ensure that logistical, financial, planning, safety, and public information are staffed accordingly.
[Read more…] about National Prescribed Fire Resource Mobilization Strategy
Prescribed Fire Grants for Texas Plains Region are Open
The Texas A&M Forest Service is now accepting grant applications for the State Fire Assistance for Mitigation – Plains Prescribed Fire Grant through August 30th, 2023.
[Read more…] about Prescribed Fire Grants for Texas Plains Region are Open
Intense and Lengthened Fire Weather Conditions – Becoming More Common
As the peak of summer approaches, drought conditions become alarmingly extended, and extended triple digit heat cripples and crunches native grasses, and convective storms rage dry lightning, it’s crucial that ranchers equip themselves with the knowledge and tools to combat any extreme conditions, namely summer wildfire season. Fire weather days are a mix of low humidity, strong winds and high temperatures. The number of these days has increased in the lower 48 states in the past 50 years alone.
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Wildfire SAFE App!
Depending on where you live in the United States, Wildfire season is either upon you or coming up. Crucial information about weather updates and knowing when and where potential severe fire conditions are key. Did you know that the Wildfire SAFE is an app that provides all of this information?