West Texas Rangelands would like to extend our gratitude to Mr. Luke Drosche for collaborating with us and providing this weather update for our readers. We thank him for sharing his time, talents, and knowledge with us as a guest contributor. Luke serves with Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service as the DAR Recovery Coordinator and State Operations Liasson.
3-Month Precipitation Outlook
Hit and miss rain with a cool down has allowed our state to feel more like fall. We are expected to move into a more active weather pattern as upper-level winds will shift southward and act as a conveyor belt to send moisture over Texas. All of Texas is in a “Leaning Above” category for the odds of getting above average rainfall for November, December, and January. El Nino has more effects on our winter weather than our summer weather. Meaning we will now look to really dig into the active weather pattern with more systems expected for the next 3 months into spring.
3-Month Temperature Outlook
Last month when I wrote this outlook it was 98F outside. We have thankfully had the first strong cold front of the season that will most likely keep the state below 90 for the season. This tracks with our 3-month outlook from NOAA as they are predicting equal chances of marking barely above or barely below average. Seasonal temperatures are expected along with cool downs accompanying more frequent weather systems. During El Ninos, it is warmer closer to the U.S. and Canada Border. This is where some of our arctic fronts have come from in the past. Since this air is warmer over the winter, we are less likely to see long periods of those frigid temperatures. Texas is more likely to see quick cool downs followed by seasonal temperatures over the winter. Some snow and winter storms are absolutely possible this winter, however there is less probability for those arctic air masses to make it down to us.
Drought Update:
Some improvement for West Texas since last month’s update as El Paso is in no Drought Designation. Just this summer we kept El Paso and surrounding parts of Far West Texas in the more severe Drought Categories, now it is in no Dryness classification. All of Texas is down from an 84% drought coverage to 70%. Both Extreme and Exceptional categories are down as well. A majority of the Panhandle is looking better, yet a band of Extreme Drought remains. The Valley has seen some easement and the dryness has shifted north of where it was at the time of the last update. We have seen East Texas drying out a bit, which has sparked some fire weather concerns. I expect this map to look much better after November with benefits from a more active weather pattern. We should see most of the state receive rainfall and along with this, decreasing areas of drought.
Looking Forward:
As we move into our cooler months and with our El Nino backed increased rainfall, we begin to wonder, what comes next? According to the long-term ENSO Probabilities forecast from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, we look to remain in El Nino’s grasp until next April/March. This is when we see long-term models trending away from El Nino and into a Neutral Period. It is very important to note here that La Nina probabilities, while low, are beginning to show themselves. La Nina means drier conditions for our state. While we are not predicted to be in La Nina at this time, we are noticing the increasing chances of beginning next summer.
Enjoy the much-needed cooler temperatures and increased rainfall chances. We have been awaiting a weather pattern shift and are now finally feeling its effects. This is the time to make your winter preparations for your operation. Learn from our past winter storms and if you need assistance, reach out to your local county AgriLife Agent or myself. Stay safe and enjoy the weather my friends.
*https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
*https://www.drought.gov/states/texas
*https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/