Hurricane season is coming fast and furious! NOAA is predicting an above-normal hurricane season, forecasting 17 – 25 named storms (winds higher than 39 mph), 8-13 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher) and 4-7 major hurricanes (Cats 3, 4, or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher). The sea-surface temperatures are already exceeding last year’s temperatures. The figure above shows the differences in temperatures from this year and previous years. With all this in mind, NOAA is predicting an 85% above-normal season. The season stretches from June 1st – November 30th.
Monthly Weather Update!
The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook was recently released for the next three months. According to the update released on March 31st, drought will persist in West Texas and with some improvements in the Hill Country area. The precipitation forecast will not help as the next three months is forecasted to be lower than normal rain chances while the very East side of the State will receive higher than normal rain chances. In Texas, 45% of the State is abnormally dry or worse, this has increased 2% from last month.
Drought Conditions Persist and a Weather Update!
Over the last month the Eastern part of the State has received significant amounts of rainfall, while the Western part of the State is below average. Over the next three months, see figure adjacent, it is predicted that the Western part of the State, which is already dry, will be experiencing even drier than average conditions.
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What does a strong La Niña this summer mean for Texas weather?
During this Winter season, parts of Texas have experienced a strong El Niño presence. However, El Niño has begun to weaken and is expected to do so over the next few months. El Niño’s counterpart, La Niña, is likely to take over as early as this summer. According to the Climate Prediction Center, there is a 55% chance of La Niña conditions by June 1st.
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