If you felt like 2024 was a scorcher, you weren’t wrong. Texas experienced its warmest year in 130 years, mirroring a global trend that likely marks the hottest year in nearly 100,000 years. That’s not just hot; it’s historically significant (Figure 1a courtesy of Texas + Water)!
While the state’s overall precipitation was slightly above average, the distribution was far from uniform. The northeast enjoyed wetter conditions, while the southwest struggled with significant dryness, some counties experiencing conditions drier than 90% of the years on record (Figure 1c courtesy of Texas + Water).
Looking forward, one thing is certain: it’s going to be warm! The La Niña climate pattern suggests a drier-than-normal spring, though its weak nature makes predictions uncertain. Long-term forecasts hint at a return to La Niña conditions for the 2025-2026 winter, but these long-range projections should be taken with a grain of salt. All the more reason to keep the ground covered up and ensure minimal bare ground going into this extremely (anticipated) challenging spring.
January saw the typical Texas precipitation pattern, with wetter east and drier west, but most of the state experienced below-normal rainfall. Drought conditions persist across the state, with some areas worsening. We are officially under a La Niña Advisory, though it’s expected to be weak and short-lived. The long-term outlook suggests a transition back to neutral conditions by late spring. Will that be in time for timely growing season rainfall? Gah, who knows. All we can do is prepare our pastures by keeping the ground covered and minimizing the exposed bare spaces between clumps of grass.
Additionally, the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook paints a concerning picture, with drought predicted across most of Texas through April. Temperature and precipitation outlooks also favor above-average temperatures and below-average rainfall for the coming months (Figure 7a courtesy of Texas + Water).
As we move through 2025, it’s crucial to stay informed about changing weather patterns and their potential impact on our communities and resources. For more information and the full report, be sure to check out the update here. Big thank you to Mr. Robert Mace and Texas + Water for their amazing information and assessments! We are so grateful for the science you bring to our producers!