The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook was recently released for the next three months. According to the update released on March 31st, drought will persist in West Texas and with some improvements in the Hill Country area. The precipitation forecast will not help as the next three months is forecasted to be lower than normal rain chances while the very East side of the State will receive higher than normal rain chances. In Texas, 45% of the State is abnormally dry or worse, this has increased 2% from last month.
El Niño, La Niña, where are we at and where are we going? This month’s predictions are similar to last months. With sea-surface temperatures starting to drop, projections are suggesting that El Niño conditions are staying and conditions are likely to return to neutral during the months of April-May-June. The odds are then favoring that La Niña conditions will kick off under June-July-August.
The Lower Colorado River Authority has been keeping its eyes on Lakes Buchanan and Travis, with levels in these lakes being at or near record lows. The figure below shows a plot from the 2008 and 2015 drought and where the lake levels were compared to the drought that we are currently experiencing. As you can see in the graph, we are barely above the lowest point that was reached in 2024.
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