During this Winter season, parts of Texas have experienced a strong El Niño presence. However, El Niño has begun to weaken and is expected to do so over the next few months. El Niño’s counterpart, La Niña, is likely to take over as early as this summer. According to the Climate Prediction Center, there is a 55% chance of La Niña conditions by June 1st.
La Niña and El Niño all have to do with the changing of ocean temperatures in the Eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator. Currently the temperatures have been far above average, resulting in the El Niño that we are currently experiencing. By summertime, ocean temperatures are expected to become cooler than average, which would signal the start of La Niña.
As for Texas, this would mean warmer and drier weather. Two of the most recent La Niña summers occurred in 2011 and 2022, which turned out to be two of the hottest summers on record throughout Texas.
Did La Niña cause this?
According to the average temperatures captured since 1950 and the 19 different La Niña events that occurred since then, the average temperatures stay roughly the same regardless of whether a La Niña is present or not.
Why are Texas Summers so hot then?
According to Meteorologist Keith White of the National Weather Service office in New Braunfels, as the sun heats up the northern hemisphere in the summer, the jet stream is pushed northward, away from Texas.
“As a result, Texas is dominated by subtropical ridging, which contributes to our relative dryness and bouts of extreme dome heat.”
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