October was the warmest and driest October on record across the state of Texas. We are also tracking to have the warmest year on record, which would replace 2023 as the warmest. While some of the state saw some rain over the last week, in other areas of the state the predictions for rain did not pan out. According to the figure below, for the month of October, the entire state saw less than 25% of the normal amount of rain.
The majority of the state is in drought condition ranging from abnormally dry to exceptional (drought conditions doubled to 74% of the state). West Texas is currently being hit the hardest with exceptional drought conditions with the likelihood to continue as projected precipitation forecasts as below normal for the next three months.
Our current state of La Nada remains as sea-surface temperatures continue to drop. The current projections show a little over 70% chance for La Nina conditions from November through January. Drought is expected to remain and develop across nearly the entire state over the next three months.
Texas will have a hot and dry winter. The projected temperature outlook from November through January is showing a likely chance of above average temperatures. Coupled with the likelihood of below average precipitation outlook, plan and prepare for minimal rainfall and cool weather.
If you haven’t already, be sure to subscribe to our weekly blog as we send out drought updates weekly. For more information on the weather and drought update, be sure to read the full Texas + Water article here.