Even with recent rains in the central part of Texas, drought conditions have, unfortunately, increased. There are moderate to severe droughts along the Northern border between Texas and Oklahoma and in the far West Texas region, drought conditions are extreme and in some areas have increased to exceptional drought. Central Texas, along the Gulf Coast, and parts of East Texas are looking above average showing no drought indicators.
Unfortunately, official projections show significant shifts to La Niña. Forecasters look for this transition to be in full swing with a 70% chance of it occurring by August-September-October. Texas is currently in a La Niña watch, if La Niña shifts as predicted, current projections suggest that it will be a mild La Niña season.
(modified from Climate Prediction Center and others)
The fall 3-month (Sept. – Nov.) precipitation forecast shows a majority of Texas is trending for below average rainfall. However, this does change for the Gulf Coast and East Texas as it is projected that they will receive the normal amount of rainfall for the fall.
Three-month precipitation outlook for September-October-November 2024 (source)
For more information and the Texas + Water article, be sure to check it out here!