Weather Archives - West Texas Rangelands

Hot and Dry. And, it’s only April.

April 16, 2025 by casey.matzke

Hel-loooooo La Niña. Until June-July-August (hopefully).

The percentage of the state under drought conditions (D1-D4) has alarmingly increased from 49% to 68% in just four weeks. Extreme drought or worse has jumped from 17% to 29% during the same period, and exceptional drought has more than doubled from 6.3% to 14%. Overall, a staggering 85% of the state is now abnormally dry or worse (D0-D4).

While the eastern parts of Texas saw typical March precipitation patterns, a significant portion of West and Far West Texas received less than 0.01 inches of rainfall. Consequently, despite the localized flooding in the Lower Rio Grande Valley,, almost the entire state experienced substantially less than normal rainfall for March 2025.

The current La Niña Advisory, is expected to be short-lived, with a high probability (62%) of transitioning to neutral conditions by late summer. The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook through May predicts continued drought or drought development for most of Texas, excluding the far east. Furthermore, the three-month temperature outlook favors above-average temperatures, while the precipitation outlook leans towards rainfall deficits for the majority of the state.

It’s going to get worse before it gets better.

This is growing season drought.

For the full article, check it out here!

Get Ready: Hot. Dry. And More Dry.

February 19, 2025 by casey.matzke

If you felt like 2024 was a scorcher, you weren’t wrong. Texas experienced its warmest year in 130 years, mirroring a global trend that likely marks the hottest year in nearly 100,000 years. That’s not just hot; it’s historically significant (Figure 1a courtesy of Texas + Water)!

Is it Summer? Weather and Drought Update

November 13, 2024 by casey.matzke

October was the warmest and driest October on record across the state of Texas. We are also tracking to have the warmest year on record, which would replace 2023 as the warmest. While some of the state saw some rain over the last week, in other areas of the state the predictions for rain did not pan out. According to the figure below, for the month of October, the entire state saw less than 25% of the normal amount of rain.

Fire Weather Alert System and Wildfire Risk to Communities Resources from the U.S. Forest Service

October 30, 2024 by casey.matzke

The Fire Weather Alert System (FWAS) is a vital tool designed to support firefighters on the front lines by providing timely and critical weather information. This app is specifically designed to provide wildland firefighters alerts and notifications for changing weather conditions based on user-set thresholds. The app also provides convenient access to RAWS data, Zone Fire Weather Forecasts, and other important fire weather information.

Drought and La Niña Update

September 18, 2024 by casey.matzke

Even with recent rains in the central part of Texas, drought conditions have, unfortunately, increased. There are moderate to severe droughts along the Northern border between Texas and Oklahoma and in the far West Texas region, drought conditions are extreme and in some areas have increased to exceptional drought. Central Texas, along the Gulf Coast, and parts of East Texas are looking above average showing no drought indicators.

Drought Update!

August 21, 2024 by casey.matzke

Did you know that East and Northeast Texas received two to four times the normal amount of rainfall in July? Unfortunately, the other half of the State did not do as well, as some places in West Texas only received a half an inch of rain. With the increase in rains in Eastern areas of the State, Lake Travis saw 78,000 acre-feet of runoff pour into the basin! Even with that amount of runoff, Lake Travis still remains at less than 50% full. The figure below shows the reservoir storage for Lake Travis. In looking at the figure, our numbers are above where we were for 2023 and a little bit more than where we were in 2011.

La Niña has been the dominant subject of the summer. According to this month’s update, projections are suggesting a shift to La Nina in mid-to-late summer. Looking at the figure below, there is a 45% chance that La Nina occurs during the July-August-September months. Moving ahead on the figure, we can see that shifting one month over, there is a 70% chance of those La Niña conditions occurring in August-September-October months.

Looking ahead at the three month drought outlook, you can see in the figure below, that West Texas will remain in drought conditions. There is also the possibility for drought conditions to develop in the Northern Panhandle.

In looking at the 3-month precipitation forecast, Texas does not look to be receiving a greater chance of rain. As you can see, the East Coast is set to have above normal chances of rain, with East Texas catching a tail end of that wave. On the other side of that, the Northern Panhandle is forecasted to receive less than normal rainfall. The figure below explains more of the 3-month forecast.

For more information, be sure to check out the full article here from Texas+Water.

Texas + Water – June Update

June 26, 2024 by casey.matzke

Hurricane season is coming fast and furious! NOAA is predicting an above-normal hurricane season, forecasting 17 – 25 named storms (winds higher than 39 mph), 8-13 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher) and 4-7 major hurricanes (Cats 3, 4, or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher). The sea-surface temperatures are already exceeding last year’s temperatures. The figure above shows the differences in temperatures from this year and previous years. With all this in mind, NOAA is predicting an 85% above-normal season. The season stretches from June 1st – November 30th.

Monthly Weather Update!

April 17, 2024 by casey.matzke

The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook was recently released for the next three months. According to the update released on March 31st, drought will persist in West Texas and with some improvements in the Hill Country area. The precipitation forecast will not help as the next three months is forecasted to be lower than normal rain chances while the very East side of the State will receive higher than normal rain chances. In Texas, 45% of the State is abnormally dry or worse, this has increased 2% from last month.

Drought Conditions Persist and a Weather Update!

March 13, 2024 by casey.matzke

Over the last month the Eastern part of the State has received significant amounts of rainfall, while the Western part of the State is below average. Over the next three months, see figure adjacent, it is predicted that the Western part of the State, which is already dry, will be experiencing even drier than average conditions.

What does a strong La Niña this summer mean for Texas weather?

February 28, 2024 by casey.matzke

During this Winter season, parts of Texas have experienced a strong El Niño presence. However, El Niño has begun to weaken and is expected to do so over the next few months. El Niño’s counterpart, La Niña, is likely to take over as early as this summer. According to the Climate Prediction Center, there is a 55% chance of La Niña conditions by June 1st.