Pockets of drought relief exist, but not much. In fact, 74% of the state is abnormally dry or worse, up 4% from last month. Underlying dryness and dry, drought cured grasses will support low to moderate potential for wildfires with steady 10-15 mph winds as frontal activity increases. As forage transitions to fuel, rangeland managers are monitoring perennial grass response throughout the Concho Valley as some counties received over 12” of rainfall in September alone.
As we move from a summer to fall-like pattern this week, the Outlook +Water Report from October 5th keenly acknowledges sea-surface temperatures in the Central Pacific (defining the status of the weather phenomenon known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation) are under neutral conditions, but sea-surface temps continue to drop suggesting a transition to La Niña conditions in September-November (81% chance). However, current dynamical and statistical models show the La Niña period promises to be weak and short.
The current U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook shows drought development over the eastern third of Texas and in the Panhandle. With the increased drought designation, temperatures over the next 3 months are expected to be above-average with rainfall deficits for Far West, Panhandle, and Eastern Texas.
As with any drought monitoring or transitions into La Niña this fall and winter, West Texas Rangeland managers know to prioritize keeping the ground covered, maintaining residual forage, rotating livestock, and plan, plan, plan.
For more information, be sure to check out the full article from Outlook + Water here!
Mace, R. (2024, October 8). outlook+water: Drought declines, La Niña delayed again, more drought expected. texaspluswater.wp.txstate.edu. October 14, 2024, https://texaspluswater.wp.txstate.edu/2024/10/08/outlookwater-drought-declines-la-nina-delayed-again-more-drought-expected/?utm_source=Texas%2BWater+Newsletter&utm_campaign=c569d9ca52-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2023_03_22_08_02_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_-86323a7a46-%5BLIST_EMAIL_ID%5D&mc_cid=c569d9ca52&mc_eid=23994de06b