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Category Archives: Recession
Current Economic Situation: GDP, Income, and Inflation
I’m struck (again) by the fact that how you view the world is affected by your news sources. Last week, the Commerce Department released its advance estimate of second quarter 2021 gross domestic product (GDP). Whether you think the economy is experiencing “some of its strongest ever quarters of economic growth” or “could soon be on the verge of economic disaster” depends where you read the story. The numbers and press release from the Commerce Department are probably somewhere in between those two narratives. All the press agree… Read More →
Current Economic Situation, 12/17/2020, Holiday Retail Edition
Clearly, many Americans and Texans continue to struggle in the current health and economic environment. Texas (following national trends) COVID cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are up substantially from early fall (NY Times and TX DSHS). As I write this post, I’m home quarantining with my 10-year-old son, who was potentially exposed to COVID-19 at school (so far, we are still healthy). I certainly appreciate the fact that I have a job that allows me to work from home. Many people must work from specific physical locations and interact… Read More →
Current Economic Situation, 11/27/2020, Holiday Edition
Black Friday marks the official beginning of the holiday shopping season. This year, shopping has started early, in part to support struggling businesses and in part due to concerns about shipping. Respondents in a VISA holiday business study said they planned to shop a mix of online and in-person retail, and intended to support small businesses. Sixty percent of U.S. consumer respondents said they planned to do at least half of their holiday shoppers at local retailers. Sixty percent of respondents also plan to purchase at least half… Read More →
Current Economic Situation, COVID-19, 9/25/2020
Among the masks, social distancing, and uncertainty that have become part of the “new normal” attributed to COVID-19, mixed economic signs also seem to be the norm. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports employment claims that have fallen substantially from Spring 2020 levels. Unemployment has dropped to 8.6 percent as of September 24, from 10.2 percent as of August 20, just over half the May high of 17.1 percent. On the other hand, that is still almost double the 2009 unemployment rate and more than double the rate… Read More →
Current Economic Situation, COVID-19, 8/21/2020
Five months into the U.S. COVID-19 pandemic and rapid-onset recession, schools across much of Texas and the U.S. are opening to both on-campus and online education with social distancing and heightened cleaning procedures. As Americans began to resume more normal activity patterns in June and July, coronavirus cases surged, forcing a retreat to homes and numerous cancellations of fairs and other statewide and local celebrations. My kids’ school moved the start date up and then pushed it back. They started school this week with temperature checks and masks…. Read More →
Current Economic Situation, COVID-19, 5/19/2020
Clearly, this is a difficult time, and many people are truly struggling with health and economic concerns. This morning I read an article calling the current situation “the worst downturn in generations — one with no bottom in sight.” I’ve lost my radar for hyperbole amid the recent news of doom and disaster, but I don’t think the author intended hyperbole. Most of the article wasn’t really news: the idea that economic downturns disproportionately affect young and relatively less skilled workers is established in the economic literature. The… Read More →
Current Economic Situation, COVID-19, 4/30/2020
Next week, May 3-9, is Hurricane Preparedness Week. Weather analysts expect this to be a bad year for hurricanes. It’s a bad year for a bad year. The coronavirus complicates evacuation and sheltering plans, and some experts believe the combined effects of COVID-19 and a hurricane would be immense. It seems somewhat strange to think about planning to evacuate the coast when we’ve been hunkered down at home for the past six weeks. On the other hand, I live further inland and can totally picture myself waiting out… Read More →
Current Economic Situation, COVID-19, 4/23/2020
The big news this week is that states are easing COVID restrictions, which is both good for the economy, at least in the short term, and risky. Several states, including Texas, have begun the process of reopening the state’s economy. In Texas, that will be a slow process, with nonessential retail outlets initially being open for curbside pick-up only. No wandering around boutiques or dining in restaurants just yet. Other states, including Georgia, are taking a more aggressive approach. There is still widespread debate about whether we are… Read More →
Current Economic Situation, COVID-19, 4/9/2020
Earlier this week, Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar admitted in a Texas Tribune interview that the state is in a recession. He said that calling the current economic conditions a recession helps people manage expectations, also noting that COVID-19-related business disruptions and not lower oil prices are the primary drivers of the downturn. Recent data point to financial hardship for both unemployed persons and businesses. The BLS reported that 6.61 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits in the week ending April 4, slightly lower than last week’s revised 6.68… Read More →
Current Economic Situation, COVID-19, 4/2/2020
Texas businesses are no strangers to natural disasters. Small business owners have weathered hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, wildfires, and more. These disasters are short events, although they may be followed by lengthy recovery periods. The COVID-19 pandemic is different in many ways. This event is longer and unknown. Whereas a hurricane hits and moves on within a few days (albeit with massive physical destruction), pandemics can last weeks or months. Pandemics are also widespread rather than contained to a relatively defined geography. Furthermore, pandemics negatively shock both supply and… Read More →