(Laura McKenzie/Texas A&M AgriLife Marketing and Communications)
On June 30th, the USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), released its first survey-base acreage report for the 2022-23 season. Today, we will review the highlights of this first report.
Dates and Deadlines
7/19/2022 – Grains Marketing Series – Archer County
7/27/2022 – Online Drought Management Series, Supplementation Decisions, Amarillo
8/1-3/2022 – Beef Cattle Short Course, College Station
8/19-20/2022 – Texas Sheep & Goat Expo, San Angelo
8/26/2022 – Direct Beef Sales Workshop, Brenham
What We’re Reading
Helping cattle producers manage high input costs, drought – AgriLife Today
Texas Sheep and Goat Expo set for Aug. 19-20 – AgriLife Today
Direct beef sales workshop attracts beef producers from across the state – AgriLife Today
Feedlot inventories at another monthly record high – BEEF
K-State beef cattle experts offer tips for reducing ranch expenses – BEEF
Acreage Report Review
The USDA Acreage report for June 2022 showed significant changes from last year, although it did not show considerable differences from the March 2022 Prospective Planting Reports (Graph 1). During July, the USDA will finish collecting data from the areas that haven’t finished planting yet. Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota still have large areas of corn, soybeans, spring wheat, and other crops to be planted. If the information collected in July justifies changes in the estimates, the USDA will update the report.
Graph 1. USDA June vs March Acreage Report
Soybeans
Compared to last year, soybean acreage increased by only 1%. A more extensive acreage was expected, given the lower cost of fertilization of soybeans (Graph 2). Projected soybean acreage is 89.92 million acres, 1% higher than last season but 3% lower than USDA March estimations.
Graph 2. USDA June Acreage Report
Corn
Regarding corn projections, the report did not project significant changes compared to the March estimates. The USDA projected the corn acreage to decrease by 4% compared to last season. High corn prices were not enough to compete with high production costs.
Sorghum
As for sorghum, the projected acreage for this season is 6.3 million acres, 14% less than in 2021-22. The states of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas recorded the most considerable area reduction. Texas decreased sorghum acreage by 21%, Oklahoma by 16%, and Kansas by 14%. The lack of moisture in many of these states contributed to a smaller area. Regarding the March estimates, the USDA increased the estimated acreage by 2%.
Wheat
The USDA projected total wheat acreage as just one percent higher than last season. March estimations were close to two percent. The June report project an area of 47.1 million acres, 1% lower than the estimate in March (Table 1).
Table 1. USDA – June Acreage Report
US farmers expect to plant more wheat for the second time in a row. Still, wheat acreage will be the fifth-lowest area for at least the last 40 years (Graph 3). With these values and a better yield than the previous season, final stocks would remain at the same level, supporting prices. A lower-than-expected yield could lead to ending stocks below the 13/14 season level.
Graph 3. Wheat Planted Acres (Source: USDA)
Cotton
Cotton acreage increased 11% from last season and 2% from the March report (Graphs 1 and 2). The projected total area is 12.5 million acres. Approximately 60% of this increase is in Texas. The State of Texas increased its cotton planted area by 11%. The USDA did not report the projected harvested area for 2022-23. In August, the USDA will release its first projections of the harvested area. The extended drought that Texas is experiencing this summer will affect the abandonment percentage area this year. In that case, ending stocks would continue similar to the previous two campaign values even with a higher acreage increment.
Peanuts
Peanut acreage is projected at 1.54 million acres, down 3% from 2021-22 (Graph 2) and 2% from the March report (Graph 1). In Texas, acreage was down 6% (10,000 acres) from last year. Given this planted area and expected average yield, the ending stocks would continue to be below the previous three campaigns (Table 2).
