Today we have the blog’s first ever peanut market outlook! Pancho Abello walks through the Crop Progress Report, Acreage, stocks, and prices.
Dates and Deadlines
10/7/2021 – Rangeland Stewardship Webinar Series
10/7/2021 – Industrial Hemp Field Day
10/8/20201 – Industrial Hemp Field Day
10/12/2021 – WASDE, USDA
10/22/2021 – Cattle on Feed
10/22, 11/3, 11/30/2021 – Virtual wheat and soil field days
What We’re Reading
Wheat Scoops: A good but tough year to sell wheat – Southwest Farm Press
Assessing global market potential for Texas agricultural commodities – AgriLife Today
Beef cattle faring well going into fall, winter – AgriLife Today
Cotton Spin: Will cotton prices have an October Surprise? – Southwest Farm Press
How to minimize a big margin squeeze in 2022 – Farm Futures
USDA Crop Progress Report showed a declined in the crop condition during the month of September. However, crop condition for 2021 is still higher than the last two years (2020, 2019) during the same period. Peanut yields per total land planted for 2021 season are estimated in 4,013 Lb./acre, approximately 9% higher than last year. On the other hand, USDA Crop Progress Report for Texas showed and improvement in Good + Excellent condition percent. This crop is in better condition than last 3 years at this time (Graph 1).
Even with higher contract peanut prices during the beginning of the season, 2021 planted acreage decreased by 4.9% (Table 1). High cotton and corn explain much of the acreage loss. There was also a need for crop rotation in some areas. Lost acres were principally located in the State of Georgia, which lost 50 thousand acres, and by Texas and South Carolina, which lost 20 and 16 thousand acres, respectively.
The higher expected yield is expected to compensate for the reduction in acreage. USDA estimates a 20201 production slightly higher than last year. USDA estimated production is 3,174 thousand tons, about 3.5% higher than last year (Graph 2). Total world production is expected to increase by 2.6% this production year. The United States ranks third in world exports (Table 2), and accounts for approximately 6% of total world production. Roughly 19% of total world exports in volume could be attributed to the US during these last 5 years.
Total worldwide exports increased by almost 17% during 2020. India increased their exports by 17.3%, Argentina by 32.1% and the US by 31.2%. China accounted for most of the worldwide export increment. Their imports increased more than 100% during 2020 (Table 3). The main question today remains if China’s high current level of import are going to continue in the future. Total Exports from the US during the January to July of 2021 fell 23.5% compared to the same period last year. This reduction in exports is mostly explained by lower In-Shell exports. Last year In-Shell exports were largely destined for China (Table 4).
Ending Stocks and Prices:
US ending stocks have slightly decreased during these last 3 years given the increased in exports and higher consumption. Ending stock by July 2021 were the lowest from the last four year, 984 thousand tons. The 2020-21 average price (419$/ton) has been significantly lower than the 10 year average price (463 $/ton). However, the 2020-21 average price has been just above the 5 years average price (417 $/ton). Average price this year was similar to the price received by producers last year. On the other hand, these prices were better than 2015-16 and 2016-17 prices which average the lowest prices in the last ten years (Graph 3).
Consumption of Shelled Peanuts (Raw Basis) Used in Primary Products and In Shell Peanuts increased by 3.4% for 2020-21 showing another consecutive increase in demand for peanut products. US demand growth was led by peanut butter consumption, peanut snacks, peanut candy, and in shell peanuts. US consumption of peanuts during the pandemic helped to increase the demand.
USDA Weekly National Posted Prices for peanuts report for September 28th average 420 $/ton, combining the four different varieties, Runner (424.89 $/ton), Spanish (413.05 $/ton), Valencia (427.70 $/ton), and Virginia (427.70 $/ton). Once the new crop harvesting starts if it expected to see an increase in prices since 2020-21 contract prices were higher than last year. 2020-21 breakeven prices for a yield above 2 tons per acre were lower than most contracted prices in the area for this season. The breakeven price for a 2 ton/acre yield was of $434/acre to cover total costs (Table 5). Total costs calculated in the district budget included variable cost as well as fixed costs such as depreciation, equipment investment opportunity costs, and cash rent, which are highly variable between producers. Prices received and contracted by producers so far are above variable costs and total costs.
Overall commodity prices and input prices have increased during these last year. Next year breakeven prices will likely be much higher. Locking contract prices at higher levels than total costs plus farmer’s expected profit margin is extremely important to keep farmers investing in new technologies and better production systems in the future.
Projected US ending stocks for 2021-22 crop can still varied depending on the final yield obtained in the following months and the expected level on US demand and exports. Assuming an average harvested yield of 4.14 Lb/acre, and a total consumption similar to last years, ending stocks will slightly increase above the 1 million tons, similarly to 2019-20 ending stocks (Table 6). The remaining question is if US consumption demand will keep at the current level, and if exports will recover. On the other hand, the high-level prices of corn and cotton will compete for acres in many regions and help support peanut prices for next season.
Table 6. Supply and Demand Projections
Price Loss Coverage
Most farmers chose for the PLC program for 2021-22 crop. We expect PLC payments given today’s USDA 2021-22 projected price of $430/ton. The 2021 Effective reference price of $535/ton will be used to calculate the Price Loss Coverage payment. Apply This preliminary estimate of $105/ton difference to 85% of the peanut’s base tons per acre on your farm to estimate the PLC payment per acre. Counter-cyclical payment yields per county in Texas vary from a minimum of 819 Lb./acre (0.41 Ton/acre) to a maximum of 5,519 Lb./acre (2.76 ton/acre). Assuming USDA projected price of $430/ton and similar base yields, estimated PLC payments per county will vary from $36.5/acre to $246.3/acre. This final estimated payment will depend on the actual PLC base yield from your farm, and the final reference price for the 2021-22 season.