This week we’re reviewing some of the discussion from wheat outlooks around the Texas panhandle.
Wheat Outlook
We are beginning to approach field preparation for wheat, and there are a few things to keep in mind. First, if you are not already a subscriber to Dr. Mark Welch’s weekly Wheat Outlook, its a great newsletter I would highly recommend taking a look at. Dr. Welch is the state grain marketing specialist for Texas A&M AgriLife Extension. Every week he takes a deep dive in to what is impacting the supply and demand, and therefore price of wheat.
We’ve had a couple of meetings discussing the outlook as we approach the new wheat crop year and these are some of the fundamental signals that apply specifically to wheat that we’re watching. First, supply; we have a lot of wheat worldwide. The figure below shows worldwide wheat production from the 1960s to the present. The supply continues to grow, and the 2019 crop year was a record breaker. The takeaway is, we have ample wheat supply, and an abundance of anything in excess of demand is a bearish signal for price. To add to the annual production, stocks to begin this year were high. World wheat days of use on hand are approximately 140, while domestically wheat days of use on hand land right around 170.
Figure 1
The second and third figure are slightly bullish signals for wheat price over the 2020 crop year. U.S. wheat planted acres have steadily declined over the last hundred years, and are projected to hit new lows this crop year. Total acreage is projected at approximately 45 million acres. Additionally, overall soil moisture conditions are drying. The latest Crop Progress report shows around 80% of Texas acres with short or very short subsoil moisture. The El Nino period that led to the cool wet conditions last fall and this spring is also over. The projection for the foreseeable future is ENSO neutral, meaning not La Nina or El Nino. Regardless, the Texas High Plains and much of the winter wheat production area is expected to see warmer and drier conditions than the previous crop year.
Lower acreage and potentially lower yields off of warmer and drier conditions are bullish price signals for domestic wheat. There is also some positive movement in export markets. As the price of U.S. wheat has declined it has become more attractive on the world market. If exports pick up, as recent USDA data indicates, we can expect some positive movement in price.
Figure 2
Figure 3
The July ’20 contract below expected levels based on the previous 5-year index. Typically, the July contract shows seasonal strength around the October-November period. Following the index, if there is a run up in price that provides some profit for your operation, it might be a good time to consider pricing at least a portion of your crop.
Figure 4
Upcoming Dates
August 26 – Crop Progress, NASS
August 27 – Randall County Crops Tour – Economic Issues of Hemp Production – Canyon, TX
September 9 – Hemphill County Mini Ag Conference – Canadian, TX
September 11-12 – AgriLife QuickBooks Training – Lubbock, TX