Its no secret that drought is forcing tough decisions on producers in Texas and across the country. Today we provide an update on the state of the drought, the outlook for the summer and falls weather, and a series of videos intended to provide options for managing through this drought.
Dates & Deadlines
8/1-3/2022 – Beef Cattle Short Course, College Station
8/4/2022 – 10 Common Grazing Management Misconceptions, AgriLIfe Online
8/9/2022 – Gray County Beef Cattle Conference, Pampa
8/10-11/2022 – Texas Animal Manure Management Issues Conference, Fort Worth
8/11/2022 – Ochiltree County Wheatheart Conference, Perryton
8/19-20/2022 – Texas Sheep & Goat Expo, San Angelo
8/26/2022 – Reduce Winter Feeding with Stockpiled Forage and Winter Pasture, AgriLife Online
What We’re Reading
Shrinking cattle herd could equal high calf, beef prices – AgriLife Today
Texas cattle sales picking up due to drought – AgriLife Today
Cattle and beef markets 2022: The second half – BEEF
Inflation Reduction Act includes ag funding – Feedstuffs
Drought Management Video Series
Over the last two months Dr. Jason Smith and I provided an overview of several options for cattle producers responding to drought in an online series partnering with North Region county agents. The first presentation was a strategic culling overview. Dr. Smith reviewed his methodology and process for culling cows and I spent some time evaluating the costs and benefits of culling. During the second presentation Dr. Smith provided an overview of how to early wean calves and some of the advantages and disadvantages associated with that process, and I again evaluated the management economics of that decisions. During the third and final session Dr. Smith discussed nutrition during drought and I provided a short term feedstuffs outlook. You can find all of those recordings at the AgriLife North Region Ag’s Podcast page.
In addition to those recordings, a new drought related resource will be launching over the next two to three weeks. “Developing a Drought Management Plan for the Ranch” is an AgriLife Learn course hosted online that is intended to help producers plan for, manage through, and recover from drought. This self-paced course is a joint effort between the Texas A&M Rangeland, Wildlife, & Fisheries Management department, the Animal Science Department, and the Agricultural Economics Department. The series provides in-depth education on range management, wildfire preparation and recovery, financial risk management, and animal husbandry, and is CEU-eligible. We will provide a direct link to that resource when it is posted.
State of the Drought
Legend for U.S. Drought Monitor Figures
United States
U.S. Drought Monitor, Contiguous U.S. – July 26, 2022
As of July 19, 2022, 68.53% of the Continental United States was in some stage of drought ranging from D0-D4. The most severe drought conditions, designated D4, covered 4.51% of the Continental United States. Though drought conditions have expanded since July 2021, the area in drought categories D3 and D4 have fallen. Overall, the drought severity coverage index for the Continental U.S., an experimental method for converting drought levels from the U.S. Drought Monitor map to a single value for an area, rose from 173 to 179 from July 2021 to July 2022.
Texas – July 2021 (Left) vs. July 2022 (Right)
U.S. Drought Monitor, Texas – July 27, 2021 & July 26, 2022
As of July 19, 2022, 99.18% of Texas was in some stage of drought ranging from D0-D4. The most severe drought conditions, designated D4, covered 20.4% of the state. Overall, the drought severity coverage index for Texas, an experimental method for converting drought levels from the U.S. Drought Monitor map to a single value for an area, rose from 7 to 355 from July 2021 to July 2022.
| Geographic Area | Date | Percent of Area by Drought Severity | |||||
| None | D0-D4 | D1-D4 | D2-D4 | D3-D4 | D4 | ||
| Texas | July 27, 2021 | 94.05 | 5.95 | 1.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| July 19, 2022 | 0.82 | 99.18 | 94.77 | 84.08 | 56.67 | 20.40 | |
| Change | -93.23 | 93.23 | 93.62 | 84.08 | 56.67 | 20.40 | |
Texas Climate Divisions
U.S. Drought Monitor, Time Series of Climate Divisions – July 19
Climate divisions represent climatically homogenous regions. Texas is divided into 10 Climate Divisions represented in the following figure. The majority of the area in every Climate Division is in at least D1 drought. More than a quarter of the area in the High Plains Division, the Low Rolling Plains Division, the South Central Division, and the Trans Pecos Division are in D4 drought conditions.
|
Geographic Area |
Date | Percent of Area by Drought Severity | |||||
| None | D0-D4 | D1-D4 | D2-D4 | D3-D4 | D4 | ||
| East Texas | July 19, 2022 | 0.00 | 100.00 | 91.07 | 49.09 | 12.68 | 0.00 |
| Edwards Plateau | 0.00 | 100.00 | 95.70 | 89.52 | 71.68 | 23.74 | |
| High Plains | 0.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 96.42 | 62.70 | 25.31 | |
| Low Rolling Plains | 0.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 99.12 | 72.42 | 33.89 | |
| Lower Valley | 0.00 | 100.00 | 81.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| North Central | 0.00 | 100.00 | 99.73 | 98.73 | 59.82 | 16.25 | |
| South Central | 0.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 95.19 | 73.28 | 27.47 | |
| Southern | 0.00 | 100.00 | 86.12 | 62.28 | 52.73 | 17.66 | |
| Trans Pecos | 0.00 | 93.92 | 91.02 | 84.66 | 61.54 | 31.88 | |
| Upper Coast | 0.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 86.26 | 50.72 | 0.91 | |
Seasonal Outlook Maps
NOAA NWS Climate Prediction Center, Monthly & Seasonal Color Outlook Maps – July 21, 2022
NOAA’s seasonal color outlook maps represent probabilities of achieving average, below average, or above average temperature and precipitation for a given period of time. Note that the chance of different from average values does not necessarily represent the magnitude of those values, only that there is a chance of different from average conditions.
The outlook through October calls for ‘likely above’ average temperatures for the majority of the United States. Temperatures in Texas are forecast as ‘leaning above’ to ‘likely above’ depending on the part of the state. Roughly two-thirds of Texas has a 50-60% chance of ‘likely above’ average temperatures for the August to October quarter.
The outlook through October calls for ‘leaning below’ average precipitation for a significant portion of the United States. Precipitation in Texas is forecast as ‘equal chances of above average and below average’ (suggesting roughly average precipitation values) to ‘leaning below’ depending on the part of the state. Roughly one-third of Texas has a 40-50% chance of ‘likely above’ average temperatures for the August to October quarter.
At this time the seasonal outlooks suggest a continuation of drought conditions through at least October. Seasonal outlook maps forecasting further into the future suggest sustained chances of above average temperatures through the majority of 2023, but show precipitation values returning to ‘equal chances of above average and below average’ during the winter months.