Today we review the January WASDE, which had a significant revision for one major crop grown on the Texas High Plains.
Registration for Texas A&M AgriLife Events and Upcoming Deadlines:
January 29 – End of Comment Period for USDA Hemp Interim Rule
February 6-7, 2020 – Developing this Year’s Marketing Plan for Feed Grains and Cotton, Amarillo AgriLife Research & Extension Center; Preregister at https://agriliferegister.tamu.edu/Grain
The January WASDE was released this morning at 11 am CST. Industry members were focused on the outcome for corn, waiting to see if USDA would increase or decrease yield per harvested acre. While the information that came out was bearish, season average farm price was not adjusted.
Yield per harvested acre increased a bushel form 167 bu/acre to 168 bu/acre. Keep in mind that the 2018-2019 yield per harvested acre was 176.4 bu/acre. All the adjustments still keep ending stocks above the 2 billion bushel mark. Barring an outsized production challenge in 2020, expect corn prices to remain pressured. Following the WASDE release CME DEC corn wavered but, didn’t change much.
Cotton season average price was the only price adjusted. A 5% decrease in area harvested led to a decline in production, supply, and ending stocks. The reduction in supply led to a 3.3% upward revision in season average price. The area harvested was still greater than the 2018-2019 crop year. In general, cotton price is forecast to remain largely stagnant, potentially large purchases from China notwithstanding.
Finally, there was a significant revision to feed and residual use for wheat. The increase in feed and residual use increased total wheat use by 0.4%, leading to a decrease in ending stocks of almost 1%. While the season average price was not revised up, wheat price is forecast to increase during the 2020-2021 crop year, in general. Declining acreage across the U.S. and production challenges in soft wheats are forecast to lead to an overall decrease in supply.
January 10 World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Chart Challenge
The chart challenge this week is a price series. Can you guess what price is being tracked here from 2017-2019?
Upcoming Dates:
Summer Crops Marketing & Outlook – January 10 – Pampa, TX
Crop Profitability Analyzer & Farm Bill Decision Aid Tutorial – January 14 – Perryton, TX
Top of Texas Ag Conference – Janaury 15, Pampa, TX
Southeast Panhandle Crops Conference – January 15 – Memphis, TX
Hale/Swisher Crops Conference – January 23 – Plainview, TX
Caprock Conference – January 24 – Muncy, TX
Feed Grains & Cotton Marketing Workshop – February 6-7 – Amarillo, TX
In the News:
BEEF – China’s beef imports soaring as U.S. beef producers await trade deal details