Field crops in Burleson County on July 30, 2021. (Laura McKenzie/Texas A&M AgriLife Marketing and Communications)
On August 12, USDA released three important reports: the weekly Crop Progress report, the monthly Crop Production report, and the latest World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report. In this post, we discuss what these reports say about corn and sorghum production in 2024.
Crop Production Update
As of August 12, 94% of this year’s corn crop had reached the silking stage, which is in line with last year at this time and the 5-year average. Sixty percent of the crop was at the dough stage, in line with last year and four percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Eighteen percent of the crop was denting, three percentage points ahead of last year and six percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Seventy-three percent of this year’s sorghum crop is at the headed stage and 32% has reached the coloring stage. Both of these are ahead of last year and the 5-year average.
The production report estimates corn acres planted at 90.7 million acres as of August 12. This is a small reduction from the June Acreage Report estimate and a 4.1% decrease relative to 2023. The production report estimates that 82.7 million corn acres will be harvested this year, a 4.4% decrease from 2023. Sorghum planted area estimated at 6.3 million acres and harvested area is estimated at 5.3 million acres, decreases of 12.4% and 13.7% from 2023 respectively.
Tables 1 and 2 compare this year’s crop condition for corn (Table 1) and sorghum (Table 2) to the previous. Currently, more corn is rated good and excellent this year than last year at this same time in the growing season. For sorghum, less of the crop is rated either good or excellent this year and more is rated fair, poor, or very poor.
Table 1. Corn crop condition, August 11, 2024, compared to the previous year
Table 2. Sorghum crop condition, August 11, 2024, compared to the previous year
Crop condition is a good predictor of crop yield on a per-acre basis, so it comes as no surprise that the 2024 corn crop is expected to set another record. The August production report estimates corn yield per acre this year at 183.1 bushels/acre, a 3.3% increase over 2023. This amounts to 15.1 billion bushels produced in the United States, based on the report’s estimate for corn acres harvested. The report estimates sorghum production in 2024 at 52.9 bushel/acre yield and 278.8 million total bushels produced.
Current WASDE Estimates
Table 3 illustrates the impact of these production estimates on 2024/25 supply, use, and ending stocks in the current WASDE. As of August 12, the report shows an increase in U.S. corn supplies relative to U.S. corn use. As result, the report expects ending stocks in 2024/25 to increase by 206 million bushels and the average farm price to decrease by $0.45/bushel relative to 2023/24. The report estimates that Sorghum ending stocks will decrease by 1 million bushels. However, it estimates a $0.60/bushel decrease in the average farm price relative to last year.
Table 3. August 2024 WASDE Summary for Corn and Sorghum