This week saw range bound movement in most contracts of interest for the Texas High Plains. There are a lot of moving parts in the current market, but with no new announcements impacting the fundamentals this week there wasn’t a lot of reason for movement. The initiation of previously announced tariffs and some reports due out next week might change that. For wheat, too much rain has been the major hindrance over the last few weeks. There are reports from around the High Plains of limited opportunity to get wheat out of the field due to excess moisture, and quality declines start to stack up the further we move into summer.
Basis has remained steady at an average of +$0.19, -$0.10, -$0.21 in the High plains for corn, wheat, and sorghum, respectively.
Brazil announced a confirmed case of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE/Mad Cow) earlier this week, however market reaction was muted. The World Organization for Animal Health did not change Brazil’s status regarding BSE, and until Brazil’s trading partners in the beef sector respond negatively, there will likely not be an impact on U.S. markets.
Next week:
There are two significant reports out next week. First, crop progress is out on Monday, and will likely be accompanied by crop conditions for corn for the first time this year. If crop conditions are poor, it will be the first official signal of yield declines outside of speculation on weather. This could cause the corn market to break the range-bound price pattern from this most recent week. We are currently at contract highs for DEC ’19 Corn, so upper limits aren’t set, but some upward movement is definitely possible.
**Keep in mind, USDA crop conditions are only taken on crops that have emerged, meaning the conditions will be on crops that were planted early and potentially with higher quality than will be realistic with corn emerging later in June. This is the one thing that might keep a lid on upward price movement from the crop conditions report.
The WASDE also comes out on Tuesday. This WASDE might contain acreage adjustments, but there are no guarantees. If there are acreage adjustments down, it will be another bullish signal. After movement on reports next week, barring some administration announcement regarding tariffs, we will probably be range bound again in the range settled on Tuesday post-WASDE.
Important Dates:
6/10/19 – Tariffs on Mexican imports enacted at 5%
6/10/19 – Crop Progress, NASS
6/11/19 – WASDE, OCE
In the News:
Drovers – BSE Confirmed in Brazilian Cow
Feedstuffs – Feeding options available for late planted corn
Reuters – Possible Mexican retaliatory tariffs list excludes U.S. corn: sources
AgriPulse – Unplanted acres deemed ineligible for trade