Price movement was largely range bound this week, right up until the USDA ‘Acreage‘ report was released.
The DEC Corn contract fell over 4.0% on USDA’s 3.0% year over year acreage increase, and the increase over the June WASDE which had led to the most recent rally in price. It seems producers took advantage of the short windows available for planting and the price signaling to plant as much corn as possible. However USDA has announced a re-survey of major corn producing states (in blue on the map below), and acreage will likely be updated in the August ‘Crop Production’ report.
AUG Feeders saw a rally over the week, climbing around 2.5% over the week. The contract pushed $140.00/cwt on Friday following the bearish news in the corn market, before falling to a close of $136.85/cwt. If corn continues to stumble next week expect more increases in the feeder contracts as cattle feeders are willing to pay more for calves.
Cash cattle on the light side, i.e. lower than 700 lbs. and particularly lower than 600 lbs. may see the greatest percentage increases from a decline in corn contracts. As feed becomes cheaper, cattle feeders are willing to pay more for these small calves since putting pounds on in the feedlot is cheaper. However, with still relatively low prices (we’re around the average seasonal low point) and good pasture conditions it is probably advisable to keep grazing the light calves.
Acreage:
A lot of the week-ending volatility came from the USDA ‘Acreage’ report, a supplement to monthly ‘Crop Production’ reports. It is an annual report that presents acreage by planted and/or harvested areas for the U.S. by crop type and state.
The bar-chart below presents 2019 forecast acreage of planted acres for major Texas crops as a percent of U.S. acreage.
Compared to the 2018 crop year, acreage of most crops presented in this graphic declined for the state of Texas, although our percentage of the total grew in some cases. In absolute terms, Texas’ 2019 forecast acreage led the nation in oats, winter wheat (the chart above presents the ‘all wheat’ figure), hay, and cotton.
Important Dates:
July 1 – Crop Progress, NASS
July 3 – U.S. International Trade Data
July 5 – U.S. Employment Report
August 2 – Application deadline for 44 Farms International Beef Cattle Academy
August 5 – 7 – Texas A&M Beef Cattle Short Course
In the News:
USDA – USDA Update on Farm Bill Implementation Progress
Farm Progress – Fewer cows, less production drive higher milk prices
Bloomberg – Extreme Weather Is Shaking Up Africa’s Corn Trade
Bloomberg – Weather Extremes Threaten U.S. Cotton Acres