June is book ended by the WASDE and the all-important June Acreage report. What is the state of the coarse grain markets as we move into mid-season?
6/15/2022 – Online Drought Management Series, Culling Decisions, Amarillo
6/20/2022 – Direct to Consumer Beef Sales Workshop, Amarillo
6/21/2022 – Range Management Program, Pampa
6/22/2022 – I40 Beef Seminar
7/6/2022 – Online Drought Management Series, Early Weaning and Vaccination Programs, Amarillo
7/27/2022 – Online Drought Management Series, Supplementation Decisions, Amarillo
8/1-3/2022 – Beef Cattle Short Course, College Station
What We’re Reading
USDA to invest up to $65M in pilot program to strengthen food supply chain – Morning Ag Clips
Should farm bill programs protect margins? – Feedstuffs
Red meat and poultry production forecast raised – Feedstuffs
Nutrien Will Boost Fertilizer Production Capacity as Prices Soar – Bloomberg
Cropland prices up 20% this year – Farm Progress
Range management during drought webinar set June 21 – AgriLife Today
Ranching profitability, sustainability symposium set June 16-17 in San Angelo – AgriLife Today
Corn and Sorghum Market Update
While the availability of inputs and their prices continue to pressure producers, coarse grain values remain at relatively high. Trendline growth in prices pointed upward prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and since then several major moves have taken DEC Corn above $7/bu. Prices opened higher this morning, following neutral-to-bearish WASDE on Friday. The next market mover will likely be the June 30 Acreage report. Where do the fundamentals stand today?
As of last week 94% of the U.S. corn crop has been planted. Though 94% is behind 2021’s 98% level, it is ahead of the 5-year historic average of 92% planted by the end of the first week of June. However, corn emergence is slightly behind schedule. At the end of the first week of June in 2021, 89% of the corn crop had emerged, and from 2017-2021 approximately 81% of the corn crop had emerged by the end of the first week of June. As of last Monday only 78% of the U.S. corn crop has emerged so far. Though this is slightly behind, it does not appear to be enough to break the market out of sideways trading. Of the 18 reported states, those lagging significantly include Minnesota (66% emerged vs. 5-year average of 86%), North Dakota (22% emerged vs. 5-year average of 64%), and Pennsylvania (51% emerged vs. 5-year average of 62%). Condition ratings are solid, with 73% of the crop rated good to excellent compared to 72% in 2021.
Sorghum planting is proceeding at a similar pace. As of last week 56% of the U.S. crop was planted, compared to the 5-year historic average of 55%. However, conditions are not as favorable for sorghum. Significant drought through the West and Southern Plains is pressuring the crop, with only 46% rated good to excellent. During the first week of June last year 74% of the crop was rated good to excellent.
The net takeaway from last week’s WASDE was an increase of 40 million bushels in new crop ending stocks. This increase takes ending stocks to 1.4 billion bushels. Two elements contributed to the increase. First, net exports of old crop corn declined 50 million bushels, bringing the carryover estimate up and increasing beginning stocks of new crop corn. Some of that increase was offset by a five million bushel increase in food, seed, and industrial use expectations. Though the increase in supply would typically suggest bearish price signals, days of use on hand remains below 40, indicating a ‘shortage’ of corn and supporting higher prices on relatively tight supply.
Corn Balance Sheet, June 10, 2022
Season average farm price remained at $6.75/bushel. Cash prices on the Texas High Plains ranged from $8.12/bushel in the Central Panhandle to $8.98 in the Southern Panhandle, a $0.39 to $1.25 per bushel basis. Delivery to livestock feeding operations was $9.53/bushel. The DEC contract has been trading in a range pattern, seemingly bound by the Bollinger Band channel (blue shaded area), with current resistance at the 50 day moving average of $7.27/bushel (the lime green line), and current support at the 18 day moving average of $7.18/bushel. Bearish events to look out for could include continued discussions on port openings on the Black Sea, the June Acreage report, or a climate update that lessens the drought levels in the Midwest.
CME Corn Dec Contract (6/13/2022). Source: CME Group.
There were no changes in the WASDE for U.S. sorghum compared to May. Compared to last year at this time, planted and harvested acres are lower, though yield expectations are higher by about half a bushel per acre. Though ending stocks are forecast higher than the 2021/22 crop year, expectations for average farm price are higher at $6.65/bushel, compared to $6.10/bushel during June 2021.
Sorghum Balance Sheet, June 10, 2022
Southern Plains Weekly Sorghum Prices, LMIC Analysis of USDA-AMS Prices