Recent history suggests Americans will eat 46 million turkeys during Thanksgiving, give or take a few birds.

The problem is that supplies are dropping. While that doesn’t mean stores will run out of turkeys before you buy one, costs are climbing. U.S. grocers are currently paying the highest prices ever at the wholesale level.

Farmers produced 4.239 billion pounds (1.47 million metric tons) in the nine months through September, down 3.3 percent from a year earlier, government data show. Wholesale prices tracked by researcher Urner Barry have jumped 16 percent from a year earlier to a record $1.24 a pound in the week ended Nov. 10, signaling higher costs for supermarkets that usually sell turkey at a discount to spur more holiday business.

— Megan Durisin

Bloomberg