{"id":3750,"date":"2025-01-17T17:29:00","date_gmt":"2025-01-17T23:29:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/?p=3750"},"modified":"2025-01-17T17:29:00","modified_gmt":"2025-01-17T23:29:00","slug":"input-costs-in-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/input-costs-in-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Input Costs in 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"PictureAs we enter a new year, producers are making plans for a new crop.\u00a0 Those plans will depend in part on their expectations regarding their costs of production.\u00a0 In this post, we\u2019ll discuss our expectations for five important costs in 2025.<\/p>\n

<\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

<\/h3>\n

Production Costs in the Texas A&M AgriLife Budgets<\/h3>\n

The main contributors to production costs in the Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Economics budgets<\/a> are seed, fertilizer, chemicals, and fuel\/energy. \u00a0We\u2019ll focus on costs for those four inputs here.<\/p>\n

Seed<\/h3>\n

Tables 1 and 2 report the average seed costs for corn, cotton, sorghum, and wheat as reported in the USDA ERS Commodity Costs and Returns<\/a> surveys.\u00a0 Over the five years reported here, seed costs increased an average of 6.1% year-over-year for the United States.\u00a0 For the Prairie Gateway region, which contains the high plains and rolling plains, the average year-over-year increase is 6.8%.\u00a0 Depending on the crop, it seems reasonable to expect anywhere from a 5% to 7% increase in seed costs this year.<\/p>\n

\"Table

Table 1. Estimated Seed Costs for Selected Crops in the United States<\/p><\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"Table

Table 2. Estimated Seed Costs for Selected Crops in the Prairie Gateway<\/p><\/div>\n

Fertilizer<\/h3>\n

After reaching record-high prices in 2022, fertilizer prices fell throughout 2023 and 2024, as shown in Figure 1.\u00a0 Whether this trend continues depends on three things.\u00a0 First, the balance of global supply and demand.\u00a0 For now, these forces appear to be in balance; there is neither an indication of major shortages nor surpluses of fertilizer.\u00a0 However, Russia, China, and the Middle East are all major producers of fertilizer.\u00a0 An escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war, the Israel-Iran conflict, or the China-Taiwan conflict would likely push prices up.\u00a0 A second related factor to watch is the state of trade relationships between the United States and its global suppliers, including Russia and China.\u00a0 Should the United States increase its trade restrictions (tariffs and sanctions) on these nations, fertilizer prices in the U.S. will likely face upward pressure.\u00a0 Finally, we must keep the local supply and demand situation in mind.\u00a0 Labor disputes and shortages in the transportation sector of the U.S. economy increase the cost of moving fertilizer from ports to local suppliers and put upward pressure on local prices.\u00a0 Then, these suppliers may over- or understock their fertilizer supplies based on what they expect local demand to be.\u00a0 A local shortage situation would put upward pressure on prices, while a local surplus would have the opposite effect.<\/p>\n

This is all to say that there is a lot of uncertainty around fertilizer prices right now, both globally and locally.\u00a0 Unless any of the major changes I\u2019ve mentioned here occur, it\u2019s reasonable to expect fertilizer prices to remain steady this year.\u00a0 However, there seems to be more upward price pressure in the unknowns than there is downward pressure.<\/p>\n

\"Graph

Figure 1. Retail Fertilizer Prices, 2022-2024<\/p><\/div>\n

Chemicals<\/h3>\n

The chemicals story is like the one for fertilizer.\u00a0 After reaching record-high prices in 2022, chemical prices fell throughout 2023.\u00a0 Changes in prices as measured by the Producer Price Index (PPI) leveled off in September 2023 and have remained essentially unchanged since (Figure 2).\u00a0 Based on this trend, it seems likely that chemical costs will remain stable this year unless a major shock occurs in the market.<\/p>\n

\"Graph

Figure 2. Producer Price Index: Agricultural and Commercial Pesticides and Chemicals, 2022-2024<\/p><\/div>\n

Fuel\/Energy<\/h3>\n

On-farm energy expenditures come primarily from three sources: energy used to pump water for irrigation, gasoline, and diesel fuel.\u00a0 The current short-term energy outlook<\/a> from the U.S. Energy Information Administration indicates that gasoline and diesel costs in 2025 will remain at or near their 2024 levels.\u00a0 However, natural gas prices are expected to increase.\u00a0 EIA predicts an average Henry Hub spot price of $3.10\/MMBtu for natural gas in 2025, which is a $0.90 increase over the average 2024 price.\u00a0 For gasoline and diesel fuel, EIA predicts average retail prices of $3.20\/gal and $3.70\/gal respectively.\u00a0 Both these predictions reflect an expectation that fuel prices will decrease in 2025 compared to 204.<\/p>\n

What About Interest Rates?<\/h3>\n

The Federal Reserve began to decrease interest rates in September of last year and has indicated it will continue to decrease rates in 2025.\u00a0 The immediate impact of the Fed\u2019s rate decrease on agricultural loan rates is illustrated in Figure 3.\u00a0 Agricultural loan rates decreased by about 6% in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to the third quarter.\u00a0 Depending on how fast the Fed brings rates down this year, ag loan rates may end up somewhere in the low 8% or high 7% range this year.<\/p>\n

Tips for Managing Costs<\/h3>\n

It looks like 2025 will be another year of high costs, low commodity prices, and tight margins.\u00a0 For this reason, we encourage producers to make every effort to manage their input use to keep costs as low as possible.\u00a0 I offer these suggestions for the year:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Communicate your needs with your suppliers. Make sure your suppliers know your needs so that they manage their inventory well and so you avoid the local supply shortages that I mentioned earlier.<\/li>\n
  2. Research the quality of any input you plan to use before you purchase it. One of the most important decisions you will make is the seed variety you plant.\u00a0 Make sure you choose a variety that is right for your soil and production system.\u00a0 For cotton producers in District 2, you can see the results of Ken Lege\u2019s RACE trials<\/a> on the Lubbock Research and Extension Center website.<\/li>\n
  3. Consider the impact of your decisions on profitability, not yield. If boosting yield costs more than the market value of the extra production, you lose money.\u00a0 If reducing costs means you lose more in revenue than you save, you lose money.\u00a0 Make sure cost increases create larger revenue increases.\u00a0 Make sure cost savings don\u2019t result in larger revenue losses.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    As we enter a new year, producers are making plans for a new crop.\u00a0 Those plans will depend in part on their expectations regarding their costs of production.\u00a0 In this… Read More →<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2184,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_crdt_document":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[31,23,19,18,27,29,1,22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3750","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","category-business-management","category-corn","category-cotton","category-crops","category-risk-management","category-sorghum","category-uncategorized","category-wheat","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nInput Costs in 2025 - Ag Economics on the Plains<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/input-costs-in-2025\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Input Costs in 2025 - Ag Economics on the Plains\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As we enter a new year, producers are making plans for a new crop.\u00a0 Those plans will depend in part on their expectations regarding their costs of production.\u00a0 In this... 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