{"id":3630,"date":"2024-09-18T13:17:53","date_gmt":"2024-09-18T18:17:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/?p=3630"},"modified":"2024-09-18T13:17:53","modified_gmt":"2024-09-18T18:17:53","slug":"to-harvest-or-not-to-harvest-cotton-harvest-decisions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/to-harvest-or-not-to-harvest-cotton-harvest-decisions\/","title":{"rendered":"To Harvest or Not to Harvest?  Cotton Harvest Decisions"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_3631\" style=\"width: 493px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-3631\" class=\"size-landing-template-thumbnail wp-image-3631\" src=\"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2024\/09\/Cotton-Harvest-483x272.jpg\" alt=\"Picture of a cotton being harvested\" width=\"483\" height=\"272\" srcset=\"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2024\/09\/Cotton-Harvest-483x272.jpg 483w, https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2024\/09\/Cotton-Harvest-560x315.jpg 560w, https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2024\/09\/Cotton-Harvest-350x197.jpg 350w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 483px) 100vw, 483px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-3631\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Cotton harvest on Oct. 20, 2021. (Courtney Sacco\/Texas A&amp;M AgriLife Marketing and Communications)<\/p><\/div>\n<p>It\u2019s almost time for producers to begin harvesting cotton in this part of the state.\u00a0 Today, we look at the decision to harvest low-yielding fields and discuss the costs and benefits of doing so.\u00a0 We also present a tool to help producers evaluate the profitability of harvesting cotton from low-yielding fields.<!--more--><\/p>\n<h3><\/h3>\n<h3><\/h3>\n<h3><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3>Should You Harvest That Field?<\/h3>\n<p>As an economic decision, the question of whether to harvest a field is not complicated.\u00a0 A field should only be harvested if the revenue it produces is greater than the harvest cost.\u00a0 The challenge is to identify the correct costs to consider.<\/p>\n<p>Producers should consider any costs associated with planting and growing a crop as sunk costs at harvest time. \u00a0These costs have been incurred and are not recoverable, so they should not influence the harvest decision.\u00a0 Producers should also ignore any fixed costs associated with harvesting equipment, such as depreciation and interest payments on loans. \u00a0These costs must be paid and do not change, even if nothing is harvested.<\/p>\n<p>The harvest decision, therefore, should focus on the variable costs associated with harvesting a field.\u00a0 The <a href=\"https:\/\/agecoext.tamu.edu\/resources\/crop-livestock-budgets\/budgets-by-extension-district\/\">extension enterprise budgets<\/a> for cotton in Districts 1 and 2 identify three such costs.\u00a0 These are stripping and module building, ginning, and harvest aid applications.\u00a0 If the revenue produced by a field is greater than the sum of these costs, it makes economic sense to harvest the field.<\/p>\n<h3>A Tool to Help with the Decision<\/h3>\n<p>To help producers evaluate harvest profitability, economists with Texas A&amp;M AgriLife Extension Service have created a <a href=\"https:\/\/lubbock.tamu.edu\/files\/2024\/09\/Cotton_Harvest_Decision.xlsx\">harvest decision budget tool<\/a>. \u00a0The tool itself is a spreadsheet that calculates the revenue, harvest cost, and net income from harvesting a field.<\/p>\n<p>To use the tool, a producer inputs information into the blue shaded cells in the spreadsheet.\u00a0 For example, suppose I have 100 acres of cotton that will only yield 75 pounds of cotton lint per acre.\u00a0 Furthermore, I have the following expectations about the cotton price at harvest and harvest costs:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>I expect a cotton lint price of $0.62 per pound and a cotton seed price of $265 per ton.<\/li>\n<li>I expect to pay $3.10 per CWT in ginning costs.<\/li>\n<li>My stripping cost is $0.12 per pound of cotton lint.<\/li>\n<li>My harvest aid application cost is $25.00 per acre.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>I enter all this information in the spreadsheet, as shown in Figure 1.\u00a0 According to the tool, I expect to earn a net income of $1,743.03, or $17.43 per acre, if I harvest these 100 acres.\u00a0 Therefore, I should consider harvesting this field.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_3641\" style=\"width: 1602px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-3641\" class=\"size-full wp-image-3641\" src=\"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2024\/09\/Decision-tool-example.png\" alt=\"Figure showing how to input numbers for the given example into the tool\" width=\"1592\" height=\"587\" srcset=\"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2024\/09\/Decision-tool-example.png 1592w, https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2024\/09\/Decision-tool-example-1024x378.png 1024w, https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2024\/09\/Decision-tool-example-768x283.png 768w, https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2024\/09\/Decision-tool-example-1536x566.png 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1592px) 100vw, 1592px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-3641\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Figure 1. Cotton Harvest Decision Budget Example<\/p><\/div>\n<p>At what price would it not make sense to harvest this field, given its expected yield?\u00a0 Or, at what yield would it no longer be profitable to harvest, given the expected price?\u00a0 To answer this question, the tool performs sensitivity analysis using the harvest cost information provided by the user.<\/p>\n<p>Figures 2 and 3 illustrate this.\u00a0 Both figures show the table that the tool uses to perform this analysis.\u00a0 The numbers in the blue-shaded cells along the top of the table show different potential cotton lint prices.\u00a0 The numbers in the blue-shaded cells along the table\u2019s left-hand side show potential yield values.\u00a0 The numbers in the white-shaded cells report expected net income or loss at different price and yield combinations.\u00a0 Note that you can change the values in the blue-shaded cells to evaluate the profitability of different ranges of prices and yields.<\/p>\n<p>In our example, at $0.62\/pound it is profitable to harvest at yields as low as 45 pounds per acre (Figure 2).\u00a0 At 75 pounds\/acre, it is profitable to harvest at prices as low as $0.40\/pound (Figure 3).\u00a0 Note that as harvest costs change, the net income or loss per acre in this table will also change.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_3642\" style=\"width: 1610px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-3642\" class=\"size-full wp-image-3642\" src=\"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2024\/09\/Sensitivity-Analysis-Price.png\" alt=\"Figure illustrating how to use the sensitivity analysis portion of the tool to evaluate the profitability of different yields\" width=\"1600\" height=\"694\" srcset=\"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2024\/09\/Sensitivity-Analysis-Price.png 1600w, https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2024\/09\/Sensitivity-Analysis-Price-1024x444.png 1024w, https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2024\/09\/Sensitivity-Analysis-Price-768x333.png 768w, https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2024\/09\/Sensitivity-Analysis-Price-1536x666.png 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-3642\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Figure 2. Sensitivity Analysis Example Using the Lint Value<\/p><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3643\" src=\"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2024\/09\/Sensitivity-Analysis-Yield.png\" alt=\"Figure illustrating how to use the sensitivity analysis portion of the tool to evaluate the profitability of different lint prices\" width=\"1597\" height=\"697\" srcset=\"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2024\/09\/Sensitivity-Analysis-Yield.png 1597w, https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2024\/09\/Sensitivity-Analysis-Yield-1024x447.png 1024w, https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2024\/09\/Sensitivity-Analysis-Yield-768x335.png 768w, https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2024\/09\/Sensitivity-Analysis-Yield-1536x670.png 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1597px) 100vw, 1597px\" \/><\/p>\n<h3>Some Final Thoughts<\/h3>\n<p>As you use this tool, keep two things in mind.\u00a0 First, be realistic about the quality of the cotton you harvest from low-yielding fields and the price you can expect to receive for this cotton.\u00a0 If the cotton in these fields is of low quality, you will most likely receive a discount on the price when you sell it.\u00a0 Make sure to account for that price discount as you use this tool.\u00a0 Second, remember that this budget only accounts for the cash costs associated with harvest.\u00a0 Your time and effort have value, and once you account for that value, you may find that harvesting low-yielding fields is not worth your time, even if this tool predicts a positive net income.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It\u2019s almost time for producers to begin harvesting cotton in this part of the state.\u00a0 Today, we look at the decision to harvest low-yielding fields and discuss the costs and&#8230; <span class=\"read-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/to-harvest-or-not-to-harvest-cotton-harvest-decisions\/\">Read More &rarr;<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2184,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[31,19,27],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3630","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","category-business-management","category-cotton","category-risk-management","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>To Harvest or Not to Harvest? 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Cotton Harvest Decisions - Ag Economics on the Plains","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/to-harvest-or-not-to-harvest-cotton-harvest-decisions\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"To Harvest or Not to Harvest? Cotton Harvest Decisions - Ag Economics on the Plains","og_description":"It\u2019s almost time for producers to begin harvesting cotton in this part of the state.\u00a0 Today, we look at the decision to harvest low-yielding fields and discuss the costs and... 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Cotton Harvest Decisions - Ag Economics on the Plains","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/to-harvest-or-not-to-harvest-cotton-harvest-decisions\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/to-harvest-or-not-to-harvest-cotton-harvest-decisions\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2024\/09\/Cotton-Harvest-483x272.jpg","datePublished":"2024-09-18T18:17:53+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/to-harvest-or-not-to-harvest-cotton-harvest-decisions\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/to-harvest-or-not-to-harvest-cotton-harvest-decisions\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/to-harvest-or-not-to-harvest-cotton-harvest-decisions\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2024\/09\/Cotton-Harvest.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2024\/09\/Cotton-Harvest.jpg","width":600,"height":400,"caption":"Cotton harvest on Oct. 20, 2021. 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