{"id":3532,"date":"2024-06-05T12:54:25","date_gmt":"2024-06-05T17:54:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/?p=3532"},"modified":"2024-06-05T12:54:25","modified_gmt":"2024-06-05T17:54:25","slug":"high-plains-ag-week-6-5-2024-potential-impacts-of-la-ninas-return","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/high-plains-ag-week-6-5-2024-potential-impacts-of-la-ninas-return\/","title":{"rendered":"High Plains Ag Week 6\/5\/2024 \u2013 Potential Impacts of La Ni\u00f1a\u2019s Return"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Photo

Rain on a back door on Oct. 1, 2021. (Laura McKenzie\/Texas A&M AgriLife Marketing and Communications)<\/p><\/div>\n

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts a shift from El Ni\u00f1o into neutral and eventually La Ni\u00f1a conditions this summer\/fall.\u00a0 This week, we look at what this might mean for summer 2024 weather conditions on the Texas High Plains.<\/p>\n

<\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation<\/h3>\n

The El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation<\/a> (ENSO) describes a cycle of changes in ocean temperature and air pressure in the tropical Pacific Ocean.\u00a0 El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a are the extremes of this cycle.<\/p>\n

In an El Ni\u00f1o, sea surface temperatures are warmer than average while the trade winds that blow across the Pacific Ocean weaken.\u00a0 For the Southern United States, the result is an increased chance of cooler and wetter winters.<\/p>\n

On the opposite end of the ENSO cycle is La Ni\u00f1a.\u00a0 During a La Ni\u00f1a, sea surface temperatures are cooler than average and trade winds strengthen.\u00a0 La Ni\u00f1a is generally associated with warmer and drier winters in the Southern U.S.<\/p>\n

Whether we are in El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a depends on both the atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean. \u00a0The atmospheric conditions are measured by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) using the Southern Oscillation Index<\/a> (SOI).\u00a0 Ocean temperatures are measured by NOAA using the Oceanic Ni\u00f1o Index<\/a> (ONI). \u00a0For either El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a to exist both the oceanic and atmospheric conditions need to be present.\u00a0 This article on the ENSO alert system<\/a> explains the decision process the NOAA uses to determine ENSO status.<\/p>\n

As of last month, we appear to be on the verge of a transition from El Ni\u00f1o to neutral conditions<\/a>.\u00a0 The two questions now are, when will El Ni\u00f1o end and when will La Ni\u00f1a begin?\u00a0 While these questions are impossible to answer with certainty, the NOAA\u2019s ENSO forecast team does provide some guidance.\u00a0 According to their predictions<\/a>, there is a 90% chance of a transition to neutral in the May-June-July time frame.\u00a0 They also predict a 49% chance of a shift to La Ni\u00f1a in the June-July-August period. \u00a0This chance increases to 69% for July-August-September, and to nearly 80% for August-September-October.\u00a0 At this time, it appears likely that La Ni\u00f1a will return by the end of summer.<\/p>\n

Impacts of a Transition to La Ni\u00f1a<\/h3>\n

So, what does a return to La Ni\u00f1a mean for the Texas High Plains?\u00a0 La Ni\u00f1a is associated with warmer and drier winters, however its effect on summer and fall weather is less certain.\u00a0 Figure 1 illustrates this.\u00a0 The figure compares La Ni\u00f1a\u2019s impact on climate in winter and summer and indicates no significant impact on summer climate for North America.<\/p>\n

\"Maps

Figure 1. La Nina Climate Impacts<\/p><\/div>\n

Looking at temperature and precipitation data for Lubbock, TX provides a more local look at the possible impact of a shift to La Ni\u00f1a.\u00a0 Table 1 reports the July-August-September (JAS) ONI values, along with the average high\/low temperatures and precipitation for the same months for the years 2016-2023.\u00a0 During this time, there were four years where the ONI indicated La Ni\u00f1a and 4 years where the ONI indicated either El Ni\u00f1o or neutral conditions.\u00a0 We can compare the averages for the La Ni\u00f1a years to the average for the other years to get an idea on La Ni\u00f1a\u2019s summer impact.\u00a0 It appears that La Ni\u00f1a has not had a large impact on summer temperatures in this part of the state.\u00a0 However, La Ni\u00f1a does seem to result in less precipitation, especially compared to summers when neutral conditions prevail.<\/p>\n

\"Table

Table 1. ENSO, temperature, and precipitation values for Lubbock, TX, 2016-2023<\/p><\/div>\n

It seems reasonable to expect average summer temperatures and less-than-average precipitation should La Ni\u00f1a return this summer.\u00a0 How this impacts crop production in the Texas High Plains probably depends on the exact timing of La Ni\u00f1a\u2019s return.\u00a0 A July or early August return could negatively impact crop progress if La Ni\u00f1a brings dry conditions to the region.\u00a0 However, a late August or September return could bring benefits to the region in the form of favorable fall harvest conditions.<\/p>\n

The Current Climate Outlook<\/h3>\n

Temperature and precipitation are impacted by multiple factors, not just the ENSO state.\u00a0 With this in mind, here is a look at NOAA\u2019s most recent 3-month climate predictions<\/a>.\u00a0 Figure 2 shows NOAA\u2019s predictions for temperature.\u00a0 As of May 16, there is a 50-60% chance of above normal temperatures for most of the Texas High Plains region during the June-July-August period.\u00a0 Based on NOAA\u2019s methodology, this means that there is a 33% of normal temperatures during this period and a 7-17% chance of below normal temperatures.<\/p>\n

\"Map

Figure 2. NOAA temperature predictions, June-July-August<\/p><\/div>\n

Figure 3 shows NOAA\u2019s predictions for precipitation during the June-July-August period.\u00a0 According to the figure, there is a 40-50% chance of below normal precipitation for most of the region.\u00a0 Therefore, there is a 33% chance of normal precipitation and 17-27% chance for above normal precipitation.<\/p>\n

\"Map

Figure 3. NOAA precipitation predictions, June-July-August<\/p><\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts a shift from El Ni\u00f1o into neutral and eventually La Ni\u00f1a conditions this summer\/fall.\u00a0 This week, we look at what this might mean… Read More →<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2184,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_crdt_document":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3532","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","category-high-plains-ag-week","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nHigh Plains Ag Week 6\/5\/2024 \u2013 Potential Impacts of La Ni\u00f1a\u2019s Return - Ag Economics on the Plains<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/high-plains-ag-week-6-5-2024-potential-impacts-of-la-ninas-return\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"High Plains Ag Week 6\/5\/2024 \u2013 Potential Impacts of La Ni\u00f1a\u2019s Return - Ag Economics on the Plains\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts a shift from El Ni\u00f1o into neutral and eventually La Ni\u00f1a conditions this summer\/fall.\u00a0 This week, we look at what this might mean... 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