{"id":3506,"date":"2024-05-15T11:33:27","date_gmt":"2024-05-15T16:33:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/?p=3506"},"modified":"2024-05-15T11:33:27","modified_gmt":"2024-05-15T16:33:27","slug":"high-plains-ag-week-5-15-2024-reviewing-the-may-wasde-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/high-plains-ag-week-5-15-2024-reviewing-the-may-wasde-report\/","title":{"rendered":"High Plains Ag Week 5\/15\/2024 \u2013 Reviewing the May WASDE Report"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Picture

Field crops in Burleson County on July 30, 2021. (Laura McKenzie\/Texas A&M AgriLife Marketing and Communications)<\/p><\/div>\n

On May 10, USDA released a new World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report.\u00a0 \u00a0In this week\u2019s post, we\u2019ll look at what the report has to say about cotton and grain crop production in the 2024\/25 crop year.<\/p>\n

Overview<\/h3>\n

The May WASDE report<\/a> is always an important one for producers and analysts because it contains USDA\u2019s first official projects for production and use in the new crop year.\u00a0 In this year\u2019s report, USDA takes projections for winter wheat production\u00a0 from the May 10 Crop Production<\/a> report.\u00a0 For other crops, projections for planted acreage are based on the March 28 Prospective Plantings report<\/a>.\u00a0 Projections for harvested acreage and yield use historical trends as their basis. \u00a0In general, the expectation this year is for increased supplies and ending stocks relative to last year.<\/p>\n

Wheat<\/h3>\n

U.S wheat production is expected to be 1,858 million bushels this year (Table 1).\u00a0 This is a 2.5% increase relative to the 2023\/24 crop year, driven by an increase in acres harvested and yield per harvested acre.\u00a0 Total supplies in 2024\/25 are projected to increase by 5.7% because of both increased carryover from last year\u2019s crop and increased production this year.\u00a0 Wheat use in 2024\/25 is projected at 1,899 million bushels, a 3.5% increase relative to 2023\/24.\u00a0 As a result, ending wheat stocks are also expected to increase by 78 million bushels.<\/p>\n

The global outlook for wheat production is for increased production and total use this year.\u00a0 However, smaller worldwide carryover from the 2023\/24 crop should result in a small decrease in total supplies and ending stocks.<\/p>\n

\"Table

Table 1. WASDE Wheat Supply and Demand<\/p><\/div>\n

Corn & Sorghum<\/h3>\n

For corn, the May WASDE projects production in the U.S. to decrease by almost 500,000 bushels despite potential record-high yields (Table 2).\u00a0 Still, with carryover from the 2023-24 crop factored in, total corn supplies are expected to increase slightly this year relative to last year.\u00a0 The use side of the corn balance sheet should remain stable relative to last year.\u00a0 The report shows a small 100,000 bushel increase in total use this year, driven largely by an increase in corn exports.\u00a0 As a result, ending stocks this year are expected to increase by about 80,000 bushels.<\/p>\n

In terms of the global outlook, the report projects a very small decrease in corn production worldwide along with a very small increase in use.\u00a0 The result is a 0.8 metric ton expected decrease in world corn ending stocks.<\/p>\n

\"Table

Table 2. WASDE Corn Supply and Demand<\/p><\/div>\n

The domestic outlook for sorghum calls for increased production, use, and ending stocks Table 3.\u00a0 Production increases because of greater yield per harvested acre outweighing fewer acres planted and harvested.\u00a0 Sorghum use increases in every category, but not enough to equal production increases.\u00a0 Ending stocks are expected to increase by 13 million bushels.<\/p>\n

\"Table

Table 3. WASDE Sorghum Supply and Demand<\/p><\/div>\n

Cotton<\/h3>\n

The May WASDE report for U.S. cotton projects large increases for production and ending stocks, along with a small increase in use (Table 4).\u00a0 Production is expected to increase from 12 million bales in the 2023\/24 crop year to 16 million bales this year.\u00a0 However, this projection is contingent upon favorable growing conditions and abandonment that is in line with the historical average.\u00a0 Although production is projected to increase by 4 million bales, carryover from the 2023\/24 crop is small.\u00a0 So, total supplies are expected to increase by only 2 million bales relative to last year.\u00a0 While the report also predicts a 700,000-bale increase in exports, and an 800,000-bale increase in total use, this is not enough to keep up with the increase in production.\u00a0 Ending stocks for 2024\/25 are expected to increase to 3.7 million bales.<\/p>\n

World cotton production is expected to increase this year by about 5.5 million bales.\u00a0 Use is only expected to increase by 3.5 million bales. Global ending stocks are projected to increase this year by 2.5 million bales.<\/p>\n

\"Table

Table 4. WASDE Cotton Supply and Demand<\/p><\/div>\n

Takeaways<\/h3>\n

The trend in the May WASDE for the 2024\/25 crop year is large increases in supplies relative to use.\u00a0 As a result, the May WASDE projects season average farm prices for wheat, corn, sorghum, cotton to decrease during the 2024\/25 crop year (Table 5).\u00a0 This does not mean that there will not be marketing opportunities this year.\u00a0 Make sure to review your marketing plan and make any changes you think are necessary to take advantage of those opportunities as they come.<\/p>\n

Also, keep in mind that the May WASDE represents early projections for corn, sorghum, and cotton production.\u00a0 We\u2019re still a long way from being able to define production levels for these crops with any certainty.\u00a0 Use these estimates as a baseline for your expectations but be prepared for them to change through the summer.<\/p>\n

\"Table

Table 5. WASDE Season Average Farm Prices for wheat, corn, sorghum, and cotton<\/p><\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

On May 10, USDA released a new World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report.\u00a0 \u00a0In this week\u2019s post, we\u2019ll look at what the report has to say about cotton… Read More →<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2184,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[23,19,18,26,29,22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3506","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","category-corn","category-cotton","category-crops","category-marketing-plan","category-sorghum","category-wheat","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nHigh Plains Ag Week 5\/15\/2024 \u2013 Reviewing the May WASDE Report - Ag Economics on the Plains<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/high-plains-ag-week-5-15-2024-reviewing-the-may-wasde-report\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"High Plains Ag Week 5\/15\/2024 \u2013 Reviewing the May WASDE Report - Ag Economics on the Plains\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"On May 10, USDA released a new World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report.\u00a0 \u00a0In this week\u2019s post, we\u2019ll look at what the report has to say about cotton... 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