{"id":3446,"date":"2024-04-03T14:44:34","date_gmt":"2024-04-03T19:44:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/?p=3446"},"modified":"2024-04-05T10:37:00","modified_gmt":"2024-04-05T15:37:00","slug":"high-plains-ag-week-4-3-2023-inflation-and-interest-rates-in-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/high-plains-ag-week-4-3-2023-inflation-and-interest-rates-in-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"High Plains Ag Week 4\/3\/2024 \u2013 Inflation and Interest Rates in 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"ATo fight rising inflation, the Federal Open Market Committee started raising interest rates at an aggressive pace in 2022.\u00a0 In this post, we will look at the Federal Reserve\u2019s progress in the fight against inflation.\u00a0 We\u2019ll also discuss what to expect from the Federal Reserve in terms of interest rate policy in 2024.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

What We\u2019re Reading<\/h3>\n

Wheat crop shaping up better than past two years, but prices are low<\/a> \u2013 AgriLife Today<\/p>\n

COTTON SPIN: Is cotton’s old crop rally over?<\/a> \u2013 Southwest Farm Press<\/p>\n

Farm bill: Increased payment limits critical<\/a> \u2013 Southwest Farm Press<\/p>\n

Jaroy Moore leaves ag research legacy<\/a> \u2013 Southwest Farm Press<\/p>\n

The Now and Later of Feedlot Inventories<\/a> \u2013 Southern Ag Today<\/p>\n

Planting Date: The Need for Speed<\/a> \u2013 Southern Ag Today<\/p>\n

Inflation and Interest Rates in 2023<\/h3>\n

Figure 1 charts the year-over-year inflation rate, based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), over the last five years.\u00a0 In the first half of 2023, the rate of inflation fell from 6.4% to 3.2%.\u00a0 Since then, the inflation rate has fluctuated between 3% and 4%.\u00a0 Core inflation, which excludes changes in food and energy prices, fell throughout 2023 from 5.6% in January to 3.9% in December.<\/p>\n

\"Chart

Figure 1. 12-Month CPI Inflation Rate, January 2018-February 2024<\/p><\/div>\n

Figure 2 charts the year-over-year inflation rate, based on the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE), for the same period.\u00a0 While the CPI gets a lot of attention in the media, the PCE index is the Federal Reserve\u2019s preferred measure of inflation.\u00a0 Although the rate of inflation, as measured by the PCE index relative to the CPI, is lower, the story told by both Figures 1 and 2 is essentially the same.\u00a0 Overall inflation decreased in 2023 by about 3 percentage points, while core inflation has come down by about 2 percentage points.\u00a0 The main difference in the inflation story told in Figure 2 is that overall inflation as measured by the PCE index did not level off in the second half of the year but decreased from January to December 2023.<\/p>\n

\"Chart

Figure 2. 12-Month PCE Inflation Rate, January 2018-February 2024<\/p><\/div>\n

Both Figures 1 and 2 also show how the Federal Funds Rate has changed over the last five years.\u00a0 The Federal Funds Rate is the interest rate set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).\u00a0 It is the rate at which banks in the Federal Reserve System borrow from each other and influences several other interest rates in the economy.\u00a0 As shown in Figure 1, the FOMC raised this rate quickly over the course of a year from March 2022 through March 2023 to combat inflation.\u00a0 After that, interest rate increases continued at a slower pace until June 2023.\u00a0 Since then, the FOMC has held the interest rate steady at a target of 5.25%-5.50%.<\/p>\n

Looking Forward: Inflation and the Federal Funds Rate in 2024<\/h3>\n

Figures 1 and 2 tell us three things about the Federal Reserve\u2019s progress in the effort to tame inflation.\u00a0 First, optimistically, the rate of inflation has decreased significantly over the last year and nine months.\u00a0 Based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics\u2019 most recent estimates<\/a>, since June 2022 the year-over-year CPI inflation rate has decreased from 9.1% to 3.2%.\u00a0 According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis\u2019 inflation data<\/a>, the inflation rate has gone from 7.1% to 2.5%.\u00a0 In short, the Federal Reserve is making progress.\u00a0 Second, there is still progress that needs to be made.\u00a0 The Federal Reserve\u2019s target inflation rate is 2%.\u00a0 The year-over-year inflation rate for both the CPI and the PCE index is still above this target.\u00a0 Finally, getting the inflation rate down to 2% will not be easy and will take time.\u00a0 In both figures, the decrease in the inflation rate has begun to level off.\u00a0 If this trend continues, then the last 1-2 percentage point decrease necessary to reach a 2% inflation rate will take time to achieve.\u00a0 This is especially true if the FOMC chooses to keep the Federal Funds Rate at its current level.<\/p>\n

What will the FOMC do in 2024?\u00a0 This is difficult to predict; however, the news organization Reuters has tracked the attitudes of FOMC members<\/a> regarding interest rate policy since February 2022.\u00a0 Currently, most FOMC members appear to have adopted a \u201cwait and see\u201d stance when it comes to changing the interest rate.\u00a0 These members favor reducing interest rates this year but remain willing to increase rates if inflation remains where it is or begins to tick upward again.\u00a0 It seems reasonable to expect interest rates to remain where they are in the first half of 2024.\u00a0 If inflation continues to decrease, then we may see 2 or 3 small rate decreases later in the year.\u00a0 The FOMC will meet next on April 30 and May 1 to revisit its interest rate policy.<\/p>\n

Implications for Production Costs in 2024<\/h3>\n

Figure 3 illustrates how interest rates for different\u00a0 agricultural loans changed from 2018 through 2023 on a quarterly basis.\u00a0 \u00a0The black line in the figure shows how the Federal Funds Rate changed over the same period.<\/p>\n

\"Chart

Figure 3. Select Agricultural Loan Rates, Q1 2018-Q1 2024<\/p><\/div>\n

Producers should expect agricultural loan rates to remain at or near their current levels until the FOMC lowers the Federal Funds rate.\u00a0 Until then, high interest rates will continue to be a challenge.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

To fight rising inflation, the Federal Open Market Committee started raising interest rates at an aggressive pace in 2022.\u00a0 In this post, we will look at the Federal Reserve\u2019s progress… Read More →<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2184,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_crdt_document":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[16,31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3446","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","category-ag-policy","category-business-management","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nHigh Plains Ag Week 4\/3\/2024 \u2013 Inflation and Interest Rates in 2024 - Ag Economics on the Plains<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/high-plains-ag-week-4-3-2023-inflation-and-interest-rates-in-2024\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"High Plains Ag Week 4\/3\/2024 \u2013 Inflation and Interest Rates in 2024 - Ag Economics on the Plains\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"To fight rising inflation, the Federal Open Market Committee started raising interest rates at an aggressive pace in 2022.\u00a0 In this post, we will look at the Federal Reserve\u2019s progress... 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