{"id":3288,"date":"2024-01-18T14:04:50","date_gmt":"2024-01-18T20:04:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/?p=3288"},"modified":"2024-01-18T14:26:11","modified_gmt":"2024-01-18T20:26:11","slug":"high-plains-ag-week-1-18-2024-input-costs-for-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/high-plains-ag-week-1-18-2024-input-costs-for-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"High Plains Ag Week &#8211; 1\/18\/2024 &#8211; Input Costs for 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-landing-template-thumbnail wp-image-3297\" src=\"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2024\/01\/Bar-graph-483x272.jpg\" alt=\"Angled shot of pen on a graph\" width=\"483\" height=\"272\" srcset=\"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2024\/01\/Bar-graph-483x272.jpg 483w, https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2024\/01\/Bar-graph-350x197.jpg 350w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 483px) 100vw, 483px\" \/>How will input costs change for crop enterprises on the Texas High Plains?\u00a0 Today, we look at three key inputs to crop production and discuss expectations for the price of these inputs this year.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<h1>What We\u2019re Reading<\/h1>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.farmprogress.com\/farm-business\/are-interest-rate-hikes-in-the-rearview-mirror-\">Are interest rate hikes in the rearview mirror?<\/a> \u2013 Southwest Farm Press<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.farmprogress.com\/farm-policy\/no-new-farm-bill-now-what-\">No new farm bill&#8230; now what?<\/a> &#8211; Southwest Farm Press<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/southernagtoday.org\/2024\/01\/18\/making-the-arc-plc-election-for-2024\/\">Making the ARC\/PLC Election for 2024<\/a> \u2013 Southern Ag Today<\/p>\n<h1>AgriLife Extension Budgets<\/h1>\n<p>A new year means updated crop and livestock budgets from Texas A&amp;M AgriLife Extension.\u00a0 These budgets represent AgriLife Extension economists\u2019 best forecasts of input costs, commodity prices and fixed costs for a variety of crop and livestock enterprises during the coming year.\u00a0 Each AgriLife Extension district has its own set of budgets, with each budget representing what an \u201caverage\u201d farm in that district can expect in terms of costs and returns from a specific crop or livestock enterprise. \u00a0Once the new budgets are finalized, they will be published <a href=\"https:\/\/agecoext.tamu.edu\/resources\/crop-livestock-budgets\/budgets-by-extension-district\/\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h1>Changes in Key Input Costs<\/h1>\n<p>An important component within every extension budget is an estimate of input costs for the coming year.\u00a0 In total, input costs are highly variable from one commodity to the next, and between production methods for a given commodity; however, costs for specific inputs tend follow trends that hold across commodities and production methods.<\/p>\n<p>For the major crops grown on the Texas High Plains (corn, sorghum, wheat, and cotton), three major drivers of input costs are expenditures on fertilizer, energy, and chemicals.\u00a0 Due to the size of these expenditures \u2013 and their importance to production \u2013 producers need to consider how prices for these inputs might change as they make plans for the coming year.<\/p>\n<h2>Fertilizer<\/h2>\n<p>Fertilizer prices increased rapidly in 2021 and 2022, reaching historically high levels around May 2022 (see Figure 1).\u00a0 Three things drove this rapid rise:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Strong commodity prices led to increases in crop production worldwide, which increased demand for fertilizer.<\/li>\n<li>China began to restrict its exports of fertilizer to the rest of the world in 2022, and continues to do so, which limits supplies.<\/li>\n<li>The Russia\/Ukraine war disrupted supply chains, limiting supplies.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div id=\"attachment_3292\" style=\"width: 1210px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-3292\" class=\"size-full wp-image-3292\" src=\"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2024\/01\/Fertilizer-PPI.jpeg\" alt=\"A graph showing the change in the value of the Producer Price Index for fertilizer manufacturing, 2013-2023.\" width=\"1200\" height=\"800\" srcset=\"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2024\/01\/Fertilizer-PPI.jpeg 1200w, https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2024\/01\/Fertilizer-PPI-1024x683.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2024\/01\/Fertilizer-PPI-768x512.jpeg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-3292\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Figure 1. Change in the Producer Price Index for Fertilizer Manufacturing, 2013-2023<\/p><\/div>\n<p>After reaching their peak in 2022, fertilizer prices have fallen steadily in part because supply chain issues have been resolved and in part because a mild winter in Europe last year resulted in low natural gas prices (natural gas is an input in the production of many fertilizers).\u00a0 The current forecast is for fertilizer prices to continue to decrease in 2024; however, there is ample room for uncertainty in that prediction. \u00a0China continues to limit exports of fertilizer, which places upward pressure on prices.\u00a0 While the Russia\/Ukraine war continues, the possibility exists that supply chains could be disrupted again.\u00a0 Finally, a colder winter in Europe would likely increase natural gas prices, making fertilizer production more expensive.<\/p>\n<h2>Energy<\/h2>\n<p>On-farm energy expenditures come primarily from three sources: energy used to pump water for irrigation, gasoline, and diesel fuel.\u00a0 The current <a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/outlooks\/steo\/report\/index.php\">short-term energy outlook<\/a> from the U.S. Energy Information Administration indicates that energy costs in 2024 will remain at or near their 2023 levels.\u00a0 EIA predicts an average Henry Hub spot price of $2.66\/MMBtu for natural gas in 2024, which is a $0.12 increase over the average 2023 price but much lower than the $6.42\/MMBtu average price in 2022.\u00a0 For gasoline and diesel fuel, EIA predicts average retail prices of $3.36\/gal and $3.92\/gal respectively.\u00a0 Both these predictions reflect an expectation that fuel prices will decrease in 2024 relative to 2023.<\/p>\n<h2>Chemicals<\/h2>\n<p>Chemical costs are more difficult to track than energy or fertilizer due to the variety of chemicals available, the variety of brand names under which they are available, and the number of different delivery systems that a producer might use.\u00a0 According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, chemical costs increased rapidly in 2022, and then fell throughout 2023 (see Figure 2).\u00a0 Currently, USDA projects lower chemical costs in 2024 relative to 2023.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_3293\" style=\"width: 1210px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-3293\" class=\"size-full wp-image-3293\" src=\"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2024\/01\/Chemicals-PPI.jpeg\" alt=\"A graph showing the change in the value of the Producer Price Index for pesticide and other agricultural chemical manufacturing, 2013-2023.\" width=\"1200\" height=\"800\" srcset=\"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2024\/01\/Chemicals-PPI.jpeg 1200w, https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2024\/01\/Chemicals-PPI-1024x683.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2024\/01\/Chemicals-PPI-768x512.jpeg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-3293\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Figure 2. Change in the Producer Price Index for Pesticide and Other Agricultural Chemical Manufacturing, 2013-2023<\/p><\/div>\n<h1>Managing Input Costs in 2023<\/h1>\n<p>It appears that input costs will be lower in 2024 relative to recent years, based on lower fertilizer and chemical prices; however, producers should keep in mind that commodity prices are expected to be lower this year as well.\u00a0 For this reason, producers should continue to make every effort to focus on efficiency as they manage their input use and input expenditures.\u00a0 One temptation to resist will be to hold off on purchasing inputs today if you see input prices decreasing because you\u2019re hoping for a lower price tomorrow.\u00a0 Don\u2019t wait for low prices that may never arrive.\u00a0 If you see a price that is affordable, go ahead and make the purchase.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>How will input costs change for crop enterprises on the Texas High Plains?\u00a0 Today, we look at three key inputs to crop production and discuss expectations for the price of&#8230; <span class=\"read-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/high-plains-ag-week-1-18-2024-input-costs-for-2024\/\">Read More &rarr;<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2184,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[31,23,19,18,9,27,29,22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3288","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","category-business-management","category-corn","category-cotton","category-crops","category-high-plains-ag-week","category-risk-management","category-sorghum","category-wheat","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>High Plains Ag Week - 1\/18\/2024 - Input Costs for 2024 - Ag Economics on the Plains<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/high-plains-ag-week-1-18-2024-input-costs-for-2024\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"High Plains Ag Week - 1\/18\/2024 - Input Costs for 2024 - Ag Economics on the Plains\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"How will input costs change for crop enterprises on the Texas High Plains?\u00a0 Today, we look at three key inputs to crop production and discuss expectations for the price of... 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