{"id":3091,"date":"2023-09-01T01:20:53","date_gmt":"2023-09-01T06:20:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/?p=3091"},"modified":"2023-09-01T09:41:59","modified_gmt":"2023-09-01T14:41:59","slug":"high-plains-ag-week-9-1-23-wheat-market-drivers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/high-plains-ag-week-9-1-23-wheat-market-drivers\/","title":{"rendered":"High Plains Ag Week &#8211; 9\/1\/23 &#8211; Wheat Market Drivers"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-3097 alignleft\" src=\"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2023\/09\/DJI_0450-scaled-e1693549167651.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"235\" height=\"162\" srcset=\"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2023\/09\/DJI_0450-scaled-e1693549167651.jpg 1484w, https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2023\/09\/DJI_0450-scaled-e1693549167651-1024x707.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2023\/09\/DJI_0450-scaled-e1693549167651-768x530.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 235px) 100vw, 235px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Over the past couple of months, wheat prices have experienced a decline, reaching close to breakeven prices for many of us across the plains.<!--more--><\/p>\n<h3><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><\/h3>\n<h3><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>Board Update 8\/28<\/strong><\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\/2023<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3101 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2023\/09\/blog.-8.31.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1624\" height=\"340\" srcset=\"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2023\/09\/blog.-8.31.png 1624w, https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2023\/09\/blog.-8.31-1024x214.png 1024w, https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2023\/09\/blog.-8.31-768x161.png 768w, https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2023\/09\/blog.-8.31-1536x322.png 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1624px) 100vw, 1624px\" \/><\/p>\n<h3><strong>Tulia, Amarillo, Dalhart Average &#8211; Cattle Prices by Category 8\/24\/2023<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3103 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2023\/09\/blog.use_.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1372\" height=\"932\" srcset=\"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2023\/09\/blog.use_.png 1372w, https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2023\/09\/blog.use_-1024x696.png 1024w, https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2023\/09\/blog.use_-768x522.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1372px) 100vw, 1372px\" \/><\/p>\n<h3><strong>Dates &amp; Deadlines<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>9\/7\/2023 &#8211; Online &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/agriliferegister.tamu.edu\/ereg\/newreg.php?eventid=747864&amp;language=eng\">Return of the Natives Webinar\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n<p>10\/5\/2023 &#8211; Online &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/agriliferegister.tamu.edu\/ereg\/newreg.php?eventid=747913&amp;language=eng\">White Tail Deer Management\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n<p>10\/23-27\/2023 &#8211; College Station &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/agriliferegister.tamu.edu\/ereg\/newreg.php?eventid=757279&amp;language=eng\">Ranch Management University<\/a><\/p>\n<p>11\/2\/2023 &#8211; Online &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/agriliferegister.tamu.edu\/ereg\/newreg.php?eventid=748380&amp;language=eng\">Wildfire and Prescribed Fire on Your Property<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Market Trends and Insights<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Wheat prices have shown a consistent weakening trend compared to the robust years we&#8217;ve had, marked by the influence of La Ni\u00f1a for three consecutive years. Despite low US stocks and lower global reserves, prices have been downward. This new level of prices might be lower than the economic breakeven prices calculated for many regions in our districts.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The 2024 KC HRW contract prices follow the seasonal pattern, usually showing the best marketing opportunities a year ahead. The market showed some volatility in the last couple of months due to the uncertainty surrounding the future of Black Sea exports. However, prices are declining compared to what we saw last year.<\/span><\/p>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Graph 1. KC HRW 2024 July Contract. Source: Mark Welch<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3092\" src=\"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2023\/09\/graph-1-9-1-23.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1076\" height=\"740\" srcset=\"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2023\/09\/graph-1-9-1-23.jpg 1076w, https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2023\/09\/graph-1-9-1-23-1024x704.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2023\/09\/graph-1-9-1-23-768x528.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1076px) 100vw, 1076px\" \/><\/strong><\/h4>\n<h3><strong>U.S. Supply and Demand &#8211; Low-Ending Stocks<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">U.S. wheat production and acreage have finally increased in the US due to last season&#8217;s high prices compared to the previous two. The latest WASDE report projected 37.9 million acres of harvested wheat, with an average yield of 45.8 bushels per acre. As a result, the US anticipates a 5.1% increase in total wheat production (Tabe 1).<\/span><\/p>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Table 1. Projected 2022\/23 Ending Stocks.<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-3093 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2023\/09\/table-1-9-1-23.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"559\" height=\"383\" \/><\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>On the demand side, US consumption remained steady for the past decade. Total consumption in the US was 1,039 million bushels. The export outlook projects a 7.7% decrease due to the comparatively higher US prices against global competitors (Graph 2 These competitors&#8217; FOB wheat market prices have been consistently lower since June 2021.<\/p>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Graph 2: International Daily FOB Export Bids. Source: USDA- Grain: World Markets and Trade<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-3094 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2023\/09\/graph-2-9-1-23.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"611\" height=\"404\" \/><\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>Ending stocks are expected to remain lower, hovering around 615 million bushels. This amount significantly differs from the 1,000 million bushels threshold observed in previous seasons. In those times, prices had hovered around $5 per bushel. Based on these stocks, the USDA projects an average farm price of $7.5 for the 2023\/24 season.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Worldwide Market Drivers.\u00a0<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The worldwide demand for wheat has outpaced production over the last five seasons. With global production reaching a peak of 796.37 million metric tons, domestic use has followed suit with steady growth. As per the WASDE projection, the total domestic use of wheat worldwide is set to reach 796.07 million metric tons.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">On the contrary, the ending stocks on a global scale have experienced a decline during this period. For the 2023\/24 season, the WASDE forecast ending stocks at 265.61 million metric tons, reflecting a carryover of 33.37%.<\/span><\/p>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Table 2. World Wheat Demand and Supply. Source: USDA-WASDE Aug. 2023<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-3095\" src=\"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2023\/09\/table-2-9-1-23.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"519\" height=\"217\" \/><\/strong><\/h4>\n<h3><strong>What can we expect for next season? <\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Higher world wheat consumption levels and commodity prices will support higher wheat prices. Further, geopolitical turbulences, as we have seen with Russia and Ukraine, might add more volatility to the market, potentially affecting US exports. On the other hand, higher worldwide production and lower wheat prices from our competitors might decrease US exports and put a ceiling on wheat prices, as we have seen lately.<\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Future prices and higher costs have tightened the expected margins, increased breakeven prices, and increased our risk.<strong>\u00a0<\/strong>Stay ready for changing market dynamics. A solid marketing plan and smart production practices are crucial.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Over the past couple of months, wheat prices have experienced a decline, reaching close to breakeven prices for many of us across the plains.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2185,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[31,9,26,27,22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3091","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","category-business-management","category-high-plains-ag-week","category-marketing-plan","category-risk-management","category-wheat","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>High Plains Ag Week - 9\/1\/23 - Wheat Market Drivers - Ag Economics on the Plains<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/high-plains-ag-week-9-1-23-wheat-market-drivers\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"High Plains Ag Week - 9\/1\/23 - Wheat Market Drivers - Ag Economics on the Plains\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Over the past couple of months, wheat prices have experienced a decline, reaching close to breakeven prices for many of us across the plains.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/high-plains-ag-week-9-1-23-wheat-market-drivers\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Ag Economics on the Plains\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/amarillo.agecon\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-09-01T06:20:53+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-09-01T14:41:59+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/files\/2023\/09\/DJI_0450-scaled-e1693549167651.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"pancho.abello\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@AmarilloAgecon\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@AmarilloAgecon\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"pancho.abello\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/agrilife.org\\\/agecon\\\/high-plains-ag-week-9-1-23-wheat-market-drivers\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/agrilife.org\\\/agecon\\\/high-plains-ag-week-9-1-23-wheat-market-drivers\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"pancho.abello\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/agrilife.org\\\/agecon\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/cc7ff5939cfbdee1d15f148532ca6fc6\"},\"headline\":\"High Plains Ag Week &#8211; 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