{"id":2289,"date":"2022-06-20T09:38:06","date_gmt":"2022-06-20T14:38:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/amarillo.tamu.eduagecon\/?p=2289"},"modified":"2022-06-20T09:38:06","modified_gmt":"2022-06-20T14:38:06","slug":"high-plains-ag-week-6-20-2022-wheat-market-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/high-plains-ag-week-6-20-2022-wheat-market-update\/","title":{"rendered":"High Plains Ag Week 6\/20\/2022 – Wheat Market Update"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"

(Laura McKenzie\/Texas A&M AgriLife Marketing and Communications)<\/p><\/div>\n

The wheat market has given excellent pricing opportunities during these last months. Today we will focus on those variables that were and are influencing this market. These factors have contributed to the high price premiums we have seen lately.\u00a0 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/h3>\n

6\/21\/2022 – Range Management Program, Pampa<\/p>\n

6\/22\/2022 – I40 Beef Seminar<\/p>\n

6\/27\/2022 – 2022 Texoma Youth Cattle Short Course, Henrietta<\/p>\n

7\/6\/2022 – Online Drought Management Series, Early Weaning and Vaccination Programs, Amarillo<\/a><\/p>\n

7\/27\/2022 – Online Drought Management Series, Supplementation Decisions, Amarillo<\/a><\/p>\n

8\/1-3\/2022 – Beef Cattle Short Course, College Station<\/a><\/p>\n

What We’re Reading<\/h3>\n

USDA to invest up to $65M in pilot program to strengthen food supply chain<\/a> – Morning Ag Clips<\/p>\n

Should farm bill programs protect margins?<\/a> – Feedstuffs<\/p>\n

Red meat and poultry production forecast raised<\/a> – Feedstuffs<\/p>\n

Nutrien Will Boost Fertilizer Production Capacity as Prices Soar<\/a> – Bloomberg<\/p>\n

Cropland prices up 20% this year<\/a> – Farm Progress<\/p>\n

Range management during drought webinar set June 21<\/a>\u00a0– AgriLife Today<\/p>\n

<\/h3>\n

Wheat Market Update \u2013 ARC\/PLC<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Wheat market prices have shown significant volatility these last months (Graph 1).\u00a0 Locally, lack of rainfalls and low-level ending stocks are still driving today’s wheat market.\u00a0 Worldwide, lower ending stocks and the invasion of Russia to Ukraine have been determinants in this bullish market.\u00a0 2022-23 World wheat projected production in the southern hemisphere has also been tempered by high production costs and non-favorable weather like in Argentina.\u00a0 Producers in Texas are coping with high production costs and low yields.\u00a0 These two variables together have reduced margins and increased risk to unprecedented levels.\u00a0 Further, the probability of triggering PLC or ARC payments is very low this year, considering these unparalleled wheat market prices.<\/p>\n

Graph 1: KC HRW July 2022 Contract. CBOT<\/strong>\"\"<\/h4>\n

WASDE Report (June)<\/strong><\/h3>\n

USDA increased their winter wheat yield projections in the latest WASDE Report (Table 1). Total use, feed, food, and exports projections were similar to last month. Stocks over total use ratio increased by 1.32%.<\/p>\n

Table 1. USDA WASDE 2022-23 Wheat Projections.<\/strong>\"\"<\/h4>\n

The WASDE report projected a slight increase in the wheat area planted and a small decrease in the harvested area compared to last year.\u00a0 In turn, it calculated a higher yield.\u00a0 Remember that part of this yield considers a good spring wheat yield (Table 2).\u00a0 WASDE estimates a higher wheat production than last season and lower final and carryover stocks for the U.S.<\/p>\n

Table 2. US Wheat Supply and Demand (Source: WASDE)\"\"<\/strong><\/h4>\n

A few important outcomes from these projections.\u00a0 First, 2022\/23 ending stocks and carryover will still be low next year, even lower than the 2021\/22 season.\u00a0 The risk of lower yields would potentially result in ending stocks much lower than in recent years.<\/p>\n

The harvest progress in Texas is 53% and in the United States 10%.\u00a0 The U.S.’s most productive winter wheat areas register a small harvested area so far.\u00a0 Domestic crop wheat conditions remain very unfavorable and well below last season.\u00a0 Excellent and good crop wheat conditions were 48% during 2021-22.\u00a0 This season, the U.S. winter wheat excellent and good crop conditions are only 31%.\u00a0 In Texas, excellent and good crop wheat conditions this season are 6% (25% in 2021-22).<\/p>\n

Graph 2. Winter Wheat Crop Conditions.\"\" <\/strong><\/h4>\n

Worldwide market drivers.<\/strong><\/h3>\n

USDA estimated the world\u2019s wheat production is just 0.7% less than last year (Table 3). Higher wheat production projections for Canada, Russia, the United States, and other wheat-producing countries offset the significant reduction in Ukraine\u2019s production (35%).<\/p>\n

Table 3. WASDE World Wheat Projections\"\"<\/strong><\/h4>\n

World wheat ending stocks continue to fall.\u00a0 Total world domestic use projections are higher than production projections like last year.\u00a0 World wheat carryover percentage is still higher than in 2008-09 or 2012-13.\u00a0 However, the World Wheat Less China carryover percentage is well below the minimum we have seen since 2008 (Graph 3).\u00a0 China is one of the largest wheat producers and importers.<\/p>\n

Graph 3. Word Wheat Carryover Estimates.\"\"<\/h4>\n

In season winter wheat conditions are favorable worldwide except for the U.S. and Ukraine, which are poor (Graph 4).\u00a0 Australia and Argentina have started planting their 2022-23 winter wheat season.\u00a0 While Australia has favorable conditions, limited soil moisture in Argentina has slowed down planting and reduced the projected planted area.<\/p>\n

Graph 4. Crop Synthesis Conditions. Source: Global Agriculture Monitoring \u2013 GEOGLAM.<\/strong><\/h4>\n

\"\"<\/strong><\/h4>\n

The USDA reported world prices lower than U.S. wheat prices (Graph 5).\u00a0 Our competitors’ FOB wheat market prices have shown\u00a0significantly lower prices since March 2022.<\/p>\n

Graph 5: International Daily FOB Export Bids. Source: USDA- Grain: World Markets and Trade\"\"<\/strong><\/h4>\n

The Ni\u00f1a ENSO weather event, Ukraine’s production uncertainty, an increased risk of geopolitical turbulence, high production costs, plus lower ending stocks in the U.S. and worldwide are the main drivers in this market.\u00a0 These factors have contributed to the high price premiums we have seen lately.\u00a0 On the other hand, lower wheat prices from our competitors might decrease U.S. exports and put a ceiling on wheat prices.<\/p>\n

Expected ARC-PLC Payments.<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The chances of triggering ARC PLC payments this year are still meager.\u00a0 The reference price of wheat ($5.5\/bu) is much lower than the expected next season.\u00a0 As of June 10, 2022, USDA-NASS projected a marketing year wheat price of $10.75\/bu.\u00a0 The probability of having a marketing year average price of less than $5.5\/bu is extremely low.<\/p>\n

The average wheat price to generate and ARC payment should be less than $4.7\/bu, given 2022 guaranteed revenue for Districts 1 and 3 (Table 4).\u00a0 The table below also shows the expected drop in yields required to trigger an ARC payment, depending on market prices.\u00a0 For example, for an average market price of $9\/bu, yields should be 53% lower than the 2022 benchmark yield for your county.\u00a0 For market prices of $10.75\/bu, the yield should drop below 44% of the 2022 benchmark county yield.\u00a0 Similarly, for a price of $12\/bu, the yield should be lower than 39%.<\/p>\n

Table 4. ARC-CO Estimated District Summary\"\"<\/strong><\/h4>\n

The Agricultural & Food Policy Center at Texas A&M University has developed a 2022 ARC-CO\/PLC Decision Aid (https:\/\/www.afpc.tamu.edu<\/a>). This decision aid will help you understand how your choices under the 2018 Farm Bill may affect your FSA payment based on your decisions and farm history.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The wheat market has given excellent pricing opportunities during these last months. Today we will focus on those variables that were and are influencing this market. These factors have contributed… Read More →<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1764,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[18,9,26,21,22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2289","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","category-crops","category-high-plains-ag-week","category-marketing-plan","category-texas-am-agrilife-extension-resources","category-wheat","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nHigh Plains Ag Week 6\/20\/2022 - Wheat Market Update - Ag Economics on the Plains<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/high-plains-ag-week-6-20-2022-wheat-market-update\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"High Plains Ag Week 6\/20\/2022 - Wheat Market Update - Ag Economics on the Plains\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The wheat market has given excellent pricing opportunities during these last months. 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