Ag Groups Alarmed by SEC Climate Rule<\/a> – Progressive Farmer<\/p>\nWheat Irrigation Round 5 (or 4, or 6, or ???)<\/h3>\n
Irrigating the final stage of winter wheat production in 2022 is a classic input management question. July winter wheat on the board is well over $10 per bushel. After accounting for basis, bids on the Texas High Plains for July delivery are around $8.92 per bushel. Simultaneous to the jump in the value of wheat the cost of natural gas and other energies used as irrigation fuel skyrocketed, also largely in response to Russia’s invasion. As of close last week (4\/29\/22), June delivery natural gas was valued at approximately $7.25 per MMBtu.<\/p>\n
Texas A&M AgriLife budgets for irrigated wheat assume six irrigations across the growing season, with the final irrigation of two acre inches scheduled for right around now. Given what producers have already spent, and given expected prices and costs of production, is putting down additional irrigation a profitable decision? Up to this point, we assume producers have applied 8 inches of irrigation, with a weighted average cost of $5.10 per acre inch. For this analysis we’ve also increased the cost of other inputs in the AgriLife budgets to account for the inflationary and war-induced changes since November 2021 when the budgets were first developed. In particular, we’ve increased the cost of NH3, liquid P, and liquid N to $0.59 per pound, $0.90 per pound, and $0.92 per pound, respectively.<\/p>\n
Table 1. Estimated Irrigation Expenditures, 2022<\/h4>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/amarillo.tamu.edu\/agecon\/files\/2022\/05\/Picture2.png\")
<\/p>\n
Table 1. is an estimate of the cost of irrigation this season. To this point, the weighted average cost of irrigation per acre inch applied is approximately $5.10. Incorporating an additional round of irrigation at the cost of $7.2 per acre inch yields a new weighted average of $5.52 per acre inch. Considering the rules we harp on when comparing marginal revenue and marginal cost, you can probably already guess at the result of an additional irrigation.<\/p>\n
We can make an important point here when reviewing marginal revenue and marginal cost. When forecasting expected outcomes you can use the weighted average cost of an input to provide a rough estimation of the marginal cost of that input across the season. However, when looking backward at what you’ve already spent and what the prospects are for an additional application, consider those previous expenditures as sunk and compare the marginal revenue of the next round of irrigation on its own.<\/p>\n
Table 2. Comparison of Irrigation Expense and Expected Returns<\/h4>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/amarillo.tamu.edu\/agecon\/files\/2022\/05\/Picture1.png\")
<\/p>\n
Table 2. is a comparison of expected outcomes from an additional irrigation of one or two inches, with a range of potential yields on the left-hand side. Again, when we consider MR vs MC, the MC of an additional irrigation inch will approach $7.25. If each inch of irrigation yields only 3.5 bushels, valued at $8.92 per bushel, the MR of that acre inch choice is $26.76. In this case, MR of applying an additional acre inch of water far exceeds the MC. Essentially, within the range of typical irrigation in May, the value of irrigating will outweigh the cost, making that last irrigation a profitable choice.<\/p>\n
This is a very simple analysis. You must also consider the time and effort to apply an additional irrigation. It’s also important to consider water availability for a summer crop if you plan to plant something behind the wheat harvest. When thinking about the summer crop and comparing it to wheat, don’t forget to consider risk. Prices for our local summer crops are high across the board, but there is always the risk of a market decline, plus it appears that the cost of irrigation won’t be going down and in the face of the drought, deficit irrigation is all but guaranteed. A bushel of wheat in the hand may be worth whatever winds up in the bush at the end of summer.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The July board price of winter wheat has taken a significant dip from its March highs, but remains 30-35% higher than its value pre-Russia\/Ukraine. At the same time, and for… Read More →<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1764,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[9,22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2201","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","category-high-plains-ag-week","category-wheat","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nHigh Plains Ag Week 5\/2\/2022 \u2013 Wheat Irrigation Analysis - Ag Economics on the Plains<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/agrilife.org\/agecon\/high-plains-ag-week-5-2-2022-wheat-irrigation-analysis\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"High Plains Ag Week 5\/2\/2022 \u2013 Wheat Irrigation Analysis - Ag Economics on the Plains\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The July board price of winter wheat has taken a significant dip from its March highs, but remains 30-35% higher than its value pre-Russia\/Ukraine. 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![\"\"](\"https:\/\/amarillo.tamu.edu\/agecon\/files\/2022\/05\/DSC_1002-400x225-1.jpg\")
The July board price of winter wheat has taken a significant dip from its March highs, but remains 30-35% higher than its value pre-Russia\/Ukraine. At the same time, and for some of the same reasons, the cost of irrigation fuel is up 60-65%. With both factors in mind, what are the expected outcomes for late-season wheat irrigation? <\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/amarillo.tamu.edu\/agecon\/files\/2022\/05\/Screen-Shot-2022-05-02-at-9.30.12-AM.png\")
<\/p>\n